Stock Analysis

Deutsche Post (ETR:DPW) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

XTRA:DHL
Source: Shutterstock

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. So when we looked at Deutsche Post (ETR:DPW) and its trend of ROCE, we really liked what we saw.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Deutsche Post, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.16 = €7.5b ÷ (€67b - €21b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).

Thus, Deutsche Post has an ROCE of 16%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Logistics industry average of 13% it's much better.

See our latest analysis for Deutsche Post

roce
XTRA:DPW Return on Capital Employed May 18th 2023

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Deutsche Post compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Deutsche Post here for free.

SWOT Analysis for Deutsche Post

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Logistics market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the German market.

So How Is Deutsche Post's ROCE Trending?

Deutsche Post is displaying some positive trends. The data shows that returns on capital have increased substantially over the last five years to 16%. The company is effectively making more money per dollar of capital used, and it's worth noting that the amount of capital has increased too, by 44%. This can indicate that there's plenty of opportunities to invest capital internally and at ever higher rates, a combination that's common among multi-baggers.

The Bottom Line On Deutsche Post's ROCE

To sum it up, Deutsche Post has proven it can reinvest in the business and generate higher returns on that capital employed, which is terrific. And with a respectable 46% awarded to those who held the stock over the last five years, you could argue that these developments are starting to get the attention they deserve. With that being said, we still think the promising fundamentals mean the company deserves some further due diligence.

One more thing, we've spotted 1 warning sign facing Deutsche Post that you might find interesting.

While Deutsche Post isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.