Deutsche Post (XTRA:DHL): Rethinking Valuation After Global Trade Momentum and U.S. Electric Van Launch

Deutsche Post (XTRA:DHL) is making headlines as global trade posts its fastest growth since 2010, even in the face of increased U.S. tariffs. At the same time, the company’s new rollout of electric delivery vans in the U.S. highlights how it is leaning into sustainability and innovation while adapting to shifting global trends.

See our latest analysis for Deutsche Post.

Deutsche Post’s share price has climbed 16.1% so far in 2025, as global trade momentum and sustainability initiatives such as the U.S. electric van rollout boost sentiment. Long-term investors have enjoyed an 8.9% total return over the past year, with growth potential now in sharper focus.

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The question for investors now is clear. With shares already up double digits and optimism building around sustainability and trade growth, is there still value to be found in Deutsche Post, or has the market already priced in its future gains?

Most Popular Narrative: 8% Undervalued

Deutsche Post’s fair value, according to the most widely followed narrative, sits €3.44 above the last close price of €39.38. That gap hints at an intriguing disconnect between market sentiment and long-term projections, giving investors plenty to dissect from the underlying thesis.

Structural growth in e-commerce remains intact, with Deutsche Post maintaining targeted investments in its eCommerce division and logistics automation. This positions the company to benefit from the continued global shift to online retail, supporting long-term revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about how this growth narrative translates into hard numbers? The calculation holding up this valuation is built on bold assumptions for future profit margins, shrinking share count, and a new phase of automation. Unpack the forecasted leap and discover what targets push this price higher.

Result: Fair Value of €42.82 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent global trade volatility and regulatory shifts, such as changes to the de minimis rule, could disrupt volume growth and weigh on Deutsche Post’s profit recovery.

Find out about the key risks to this Deutsche Post narrative.

Build Your Own Deutsche Post Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or believe another story is unfolding beneath the headlines, you can quickly craft your own perspective in just a few minutes, or Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Deutsche Post.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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