We Think Deutsche Telekom (ETR:DTE) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

By
Simply Wall St
Published
October 17, 2021
XTRA:DTE
Source: Shutterstock

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Deutsche Telekom AG (ETR:DTE) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Deutsche Telekom

What Is Deutsche Telekom's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Deutsche Telekom had €109.7b of debt at June 2021, down from €116.6b a year prior. However, it does have €8.86b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €100.8b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
XTRA:DTE Debt to Equity History October 17th 2021

How Healthy Is Deutsche Telekom's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Deutsche Telekom had liabilities of €35.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €158.3b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €8.86b as well as receivables valued at €16.2b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €168.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the €78.4b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Deutsche Telekom would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Deutsche Telekom has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.8 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.1 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. On the other hand, Deutsche Telekom grew its EBIT by 20% in the last year. If it can maintain that kind of improvement, its debt load will begin to melt away like glaciers in a warming world. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Deutsche Telekom's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Deutsche Telekom's free cash flow amounted to 43% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Deutsche Telekom's level of total liabilities was disappointing. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Deutsche Telekom has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Deutsche Telekom is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St

Simply Wall St is focused on providing unbiased, high-quality research coverage on every listed company in the world. Our research team consists of data scientists and multiple equity analysts with over two decades worth of financial markets experience between them.