Harmonic Inc.

DB:HMC Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.4b

Harmonic Valuation

Is HMC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HMC (€11.71) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€1.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HMC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HMC?

Key metric: As HMC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HMC. This is calculated by dividing HMC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HMC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.2x
EarningsUS$84.94m
Market CapUS$1.46b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HMC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HMC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.7x
FEW Funkwerk
10.7xn/a€177.3m
CEK CeoTronics
35.1x25.1%€42.3m
JEN Jenoptik
14.1x12.3%€1.2b
S9I Stemmer Imaging
42.8x37.2%€349.7m
HMC Harmonic
17.2x36.7%€1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (25.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HMC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Communications Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HMC 17.2xIndustry Avg. 30.0xNo. of Companies7PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the Global Communications industry average (30.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HMC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HMC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.2x
Fair PE Ratio21x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HMC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€11.71
€13.81
+17.9%
13.0%€16.65€11.56n/a7
Nov ’25€10.03
€13.81
+37.6%
13.0%€16.65€11.56n/a7
Oct ’25€12.85
€15.33
+19.3%
13.6%€18.50€12.03n/a7
Sep ’25€13.02
€15.33
+17.7%
13.6%€18.50€12.03n/a7
Aug ’25€13.37
€15.33
+14.6%
13.6%€18.50€12.03n/a7
Jul ’25€10.78
€14.51
+34.7%
11.8%€16.77€12.11n/a7
Jun ’25€11.02
€14.33
+30.1%
11.8%€16.56€11.96n/a7
May ’25€8.95
€14.99
+67.5%
10.2%€16.86€13.12n/a6
Apr ’25€12.28
€14.76
+20.2%
10.2%€16.60€12.91n/a6
Mar ’25€11.95
€14.76
+23.5%
10.2%€16.60€12.91n/a6
Feb ’25€10.66
€14.76
+38.5%
10.2%€16.60€12.91n/a6
Jan ’25€11.48
€15.47
+34.8%
12.1%€17.46€12.87n/a6
Dec ’24€10.05
€15.47
+53.9%
11.1%€16.79€13.06n/a6
Nov ’24€10.03
€15.28
+52.4%
11.5%€17.01€13.23€10.036
Oct ’24€8.78
€16.70
+90.1%
7.5%€18.22€14.57€12.856
Sep ’24€9.68
€16.70
+72.4%
7.5%€18.22€14.57€13.026
Aug ’24€11.74
€16.54
+41.0%
9.2%€18.21€13.66€13.376
Jul ’24€14.85
€19.00
+28.0%
10.5%€20.98€15.51€10.786
Jun ’24€16.47
€19.00
+15.4%
10.5%€20.98€15.51€11.026
May ’24€12.77
€18.41
+44.2%
9.1%€21.18€15.65€8.956
Apr ’24€13.10
€18.26
+39.4%
9.1%€21.35€15.78€12.286
Mar ’24€12.23
€17.63
+44.2%
5.6%€18.40€15.64€11.956
Feb ’24€12.05
€17.63
+46.4%
5.6%€18.40€15.64€10.666
Jan ’24€12.08
€17.93
+48.4%
11.2%€20.25€14.43€11.486
Dec ’23€14.33
€17.93
+25.1%
11.2%€20.25€14.43€10.056
Nov ’23€14.16
€17.93
+26.7%
11.2%€20.25€14.43€10.036

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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