Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Pyramid AG (ETR:M3BK) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Pyramid
What Is Pyramid's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Pyramid had debt of €12.4m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from €15.4m over a year. However, it does have €3.77m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €8.66m.
How Strong Is Pyramid's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Pyramid had liabilities of €17.0m due within 12 months, and liabilities of €9.59m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of €3.77m and €4.30m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €18.5m.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €22.0m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Pyramid's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Pyramid's net debt is only 0.25 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 26.5 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Although Pyramid made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, it was also good to see that it generated €32m in EBIT over the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Pyramid's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, Pyramid recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
We feel some trepidation about Pyramid's difficulty conversion of EBIT to free cash flow, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA were encouraging signs. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Pyramid's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Pyramid has 4 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:M3BK
Pyramid
Develops and manufactures information technology solutions for the retail and hospitality market.
Undervalued with reasonable growth potential.