Cognyte Software Ltd.

DB:81M Stock Report

Market Cap: €542.4m

Cognyte Software Valuation

Is 81M undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 81M when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 81M (€2.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€4.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 81M is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 81M?

Key metric: As 81M is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 81M. This is calculated by dividing 81M's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 81M's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.7x
SalesUS$330.21m
Market CapUS$572.28m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 81M's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 81M vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.6x
GKS GK Software
3x8.7%€468.2m
GKS GK Software
3.8xn/a€647.8m
PSAN PSI Software
1.3x8.6%€337.6m
MUM Mensch und Maschine Software
2.5x-0.1%€888.7m
81M Cognyte Software
1.7x7.6%€572.3m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 81M is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (2.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 81M's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Software Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CSH CENIT
0.3x5.2%US$71.98m
CLIQ Cliq Digital
0.09x13.2%US$25.26m
LSX LS telcom
0.5x5.0%US$21.40m
8DQ GetSwift Technologies
0.07xn/aUS$2.53m
81M 1.7xIndustry Avg. 2.1xNo. of Companies7PS02.44.87.29.612+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 81M is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the German Software industry average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 81M's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

81M PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.7x
Fair PS Ratio2.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 81M is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 81M forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
€7.60
0%
9.1%€8.29€6.91n/a2
Nov ’25€2.38
€7.60
+219.2%
9.1%€8.29€6.91n/a2
Oct ’25€6.05
€8.56
+41.5%
15.6%€10.27€7.01n/a3
Sep ’25€6.60
€8.56
+29.7%
15.6%€10.27€7.01n/a3
Aug ’25€6.85
€8.56
+25.0%
15.6%€10.27€7.01n/a3
Jul ’25€6.95
€8.56
+23.2%
15.6%€10.27€7.01n/a3
Jun ’25€6.70
€8.29
+23.8%
17.5%€10.33€7.04n/a3
May ’25€6.30
€8.29
+31.6%
17.5%€10.33€7.04n/a3
Apr ’25€7.30
€6.07
-16.9%
35.4%€9.10€4.55n/a3
Mar ’25€6.70
€6.07
-9.5%
35.4%€9.10€4.55n/a3
Feb ’25€6.50
€6.07
-6.7%
35.4%€9.10€4.55n/a3
Jan ’25€5.60
€6.07
+8.3%
35.4%€9.10€4.55n/a3
Dec ’24€4.50
€6.16
+36.9%
32.6%€9.01€4.74n/a3
Nov ’24€3.86
€6.16
+59.6%
32.6%€9.01€4.74€2.383
Oct ’24€4.14
€6.76
+63.2%
31.0%€8.85€4.66€6.052
Sep ’24€4.32
€5.91
+36.8%
32.6%€8.64€4.55€6.603
Aug ’24€4.74
€5.91
+24.7%
32.6%€8.64€4.55€6.853
Jul ’24€5.35
€4.88
-8.9%
8.8%€5.48€4.57€6.953
Jun ’24€4.46
€4.28
-4.0%
26.7%€5.50€2.75€6.703
May ’24€3.60
€4.28
+18.9%
26.7%€5.50€2.75€6.303
Apr ’24€2.92
€5.64
+93.1%
49.1%€9.40€2.82€7.303
Mar ’24€3.34
€4.83
+44.6%
54.5%€9.20€2.76€6.704
Feb ’24€3.34
€4.83
+44.6%
54.5%€9.20€2.76€6.504
Jan ’24€2.68
€4.95
+84.6%
54.5%€9.42€2.83€5.604
Dec ’23€2.72
€6.68
+145.5%
31.7%€10.27€5.14€4.504
Nov ’23€2.80
€6.68
+138.5%
31.7%€10.27€5.14€3.864

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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