InVision (ETR:IVX) Is Growing Earnings But Are They A Good Guide?

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. This article will consider whether InVision's (ETR:IVX) statutory profits are a good guide to its underlying earnings.

While InVision was able to generate revenue of €12.7m in the last twelve months, we think its profit result of €2.56m was more important. Interestingly, even though its revenue has been flat over the last few years, its profit has actually increased, as you can see, below.

Check out our latest analysis for InVision

Importantly, statutory profits are not always the best tool for understanding a company's true earnings power, so it's well worth examining profits in a little more detail. Thus, we will today look at InVision's cashflow relative to its earnings, and consider how a tax benefit has impacted its statutory profit. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Zooming In On InVision's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to September 2020, InVision had an accrual ratio of 0.21. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of €667k, which is significantly less than its profit of €2.56m. InVision shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months. Importantly, we note an unusual tax situation, which we discuss below, has impacted the accruals ratio. This would certainly have contributed to the weak cash conversion. The good news for shareholders is that InVision's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

An Unusual Tax Situation

Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that InVision profited from a tax benefit which contributed €1.6m to profit. It's always a bit noteworthy when a company is paid by the tax man, rather than paying the tax man. The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.

Our Take On InVision's Profit Performance

This year, InVision couldn't match its profit with cashflow. On top of that, the unsustainable nature of tax benefits mean that there's a chance profit may be lower next year, certainly in the absence of strong growth. Considering all this we'd argue InVision's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for InVision you should be mindful of and 3 of these can't be ignored.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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