Tractor Supply Company

DB:TR4 Stock Report

Market Cap: €27.9b

Tractor Supply Valuation

Is TR4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TR4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€53.49
Fair Value
5.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
30
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TR4 (€50.63) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€53.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TR4 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TR4?

Key metric: As TR4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TR4. This is calculated by dividing TR4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TR4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.8x
EarningsUS$1.11b
Market CapUS$28.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TR4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TR4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.2x
FIE Fielmann Group
24x18.9%€3.4b
DOU Douglas
25.4x22.1%€2.1b
ZAL Zalando
40.3x19.8%€8.2b
HBM HORNBACH Baumarkt
26.9xn/a€2.0b
TR4 Tractor Supply
25.8x6.8%€28.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TR4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.8x) compared to the peer average (29.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TR4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Specialty Retail Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TR4 25.8xIndustry Avg. 17.7xNo. of Companies11PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TR4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.8x) compared to the European Specialty Retail industry average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TR4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TR4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.8x
Fair PE Ratio16.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TR4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TR4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€50.63
€56.56
+11.7%
10.1%€67.96€44.57n/a30
Jan ’26€50.68
€55.99
+10.5%
10.4%€67.14€42.20n/a29
Dec ’25€53.10
€55.20
+3.9%
10.5%€63.84€41.92n/a29
Nov ’25€48.74
€53.37
+9.5%
10.5%€61.69€40.52n/a29
Oct ’25€51.93
€49.32
-5.0%
9.4%€56.42€36.72n/a29
Sep ’25€49.32
€49.88
+1.1%
9.2%€57.34€37.55n/a28
Aug ’25€48.65
€49.89
+2.6%
10.1%€57.84€37.88n/a29
Jul ’25€49.94
€50.41
+0.9%
10.4%€59.23€38.18n/a29
Jun ’25€51.44
€50.02
-2.8%
10.4%€58.77€37.89n/a29
May ’25€51.64
€49.73
-3.7%
10.0%€57.05€38.35n/a29
Apr ’25€48.32
€44.80
-7.3%
10.5%€52.59€31.92n/a30
Mar ’25€47.16
€44.41
-5.8%
9.9%€49.83€31.93n/a29
Feb ’25€41.64
€42.18
+1.3%
10.9%€49.68€31.83n/a29
Jan ’25€39.00
€39.48
+1.2%
9.3%€48.10€31.08€50.6830
Dec ’24€37.06
€39.63
+6.9%
8.6%€48.50€34.82€53.1030
Nov ’24€35.94
€41.08
+14.3%
9.4%€51.02€35.91€48.7430
Oct ’24€38.50
€46.49
+20.7%
7.6%€53.02€39.77€51.9330
Sep ’24€40.20
€45.07
+12.1%
7.2%€51.40€38.55€49.3230
Aug ’24€40.56
€44.70
+10.2%
7.2%€50.93€38.19€48.6531
Jul ’24€40.00
€46.42
+16.1%
6.2%€51.31€39.21€49.9431
Jun ’24€39.02
€47.26
+21.1%
6.2%€52.00€39.74€51.4431
May ’24€42.80
€46.25
+8.0%
6.1%€51.04€39.01€51.6431
Apr ’24€42.00
€45.11
+7.4%
6.3%€50.06€38.51€48.3231
Mar ’24€42.63
€45.92
+7.7%
6.6%€50.91€35.82€47.1631
Feb ’24€40.86
€44.12
+8.0%
7.0%€49.16€33.86€41.6429
Jan ’24€42.16
€43.31
+2.7%
9.6%€50.91€35.07€39.0028
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 30 Analysts
€54.96
Fair Value
7.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
30
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/20 08:34
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/28
Annual Earnings2023/12/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Tractor Supply Company is covered by 59 analysts. 31 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Deborah CiervoArgus Research Company
Jeff BlackAvondale Partners
Peter BenedictBaird