Alibaba Group Holding Limited

DB:AHLA Stock Report

Market Cap: €185.7b

Alibaba Group Holding Valuation

Is AHLA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AHLA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AHLA (€81.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€176.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AHLA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AHLA?

Key metric: As AHLA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AHLA. This is calculated by dividing AHLA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AHLA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsCN¥85.85b
Market CapCN¥1.41t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AHLA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AHLA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27x
PRX Prosus
13.8x4.8%€90.5b
MELI MercadoLibre
74.4x28.0%US$106.5b
JD JD.com
10.6x8.4%US$50.0b
PDD PDD Holdings
9.2x14.1%US$139.8b
AHLA Alibaba Group Holding
16.3x15.0%€194.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AHLA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (27x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AHLA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AHLA 16.3xIndustry Avg. 20.2xNo. of Companies20PE01632486480+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AHLA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (20.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AHLA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AHLA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ratio23.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AHLA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AHLA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€81.30
€114.95
+41.4%
13.1%€139.17€80.89n/a43
Nov ’25€89.80
€111.03
+23.6%
13.5%€136.68€79.43n/a44
Oct ’25€101.60
€98.54
-3.0%
13.1%€122.09€71.92n/a44
Sep ’25€74.90
€97.88
+30.7%
12.2%€118.92€72.91n/a44
Aug ’25€72.00
€97.37
+35.2%
13.1%€124.72€74.09n/a43
Jul ’25€67.50
€98.46
+45.9%
13.3%€125.59€74.32n/a42
Jun ’25€72.10
€97.28
+34.9%
13.3%€124.25€73.53n/a42
May ’25€70.10
€98.15
+40.0%
13.8%€124.79€74.80n/a43
Apr ’25€66.80
€98.44
+47.4%
14.3%€125.84€73.82n/a42
Mar ’25€68.90
€99.85
+44.9%
15.7%€136.22€73.79n/a43
Feb ’25€66.55
€105.59
+58.7%
15.9%€137.99€75.34n/a43
Jan ’25€69.75
€113.66
+63.0%
16.7%€145.69€74.61n/a43
Dec ’24€67.95
€116.92
+72.1%
15.2%€147.38€81.15n/a43
Nov ’24€77.70
€130.72
+68.2%
13.7%€176.90€93.40€89.8043
Oct ’24€82.05
€132.85
+61.9%
13.3%€175.03€93.67€101.6043
Sep ’24€88.15
€131.23
+48.9%
13.3%€172.60€92.37€74.9044
Aug ’24€91.20
€126.46
+38.7%
14.0%€166.80€84.60€72.0044
Jul ’24€76.35
€126.06
+65.1%
14.4%€164.29€84.04€67.5044
Jun ’24€77.10
€130.56
+69.3%
12.7%€166.84€89.59€72.1044
May ’24€76.50
€132.19
+72.8%
13.6%€198.92€89.83€70.1044
Apr ’24€93.85
€134.19
+43.0%
13.9%€201.73€91.32€66.8043
Mar ’24€84.25
€137.49
+63.2%
15.4%€207.50€68.89€68.9042
Feb ’24€102.70
€134.10
+30.6%
17.2%€202.99€68.71€66.5542
Jan ’24€81.55
€130.43
+59.9%
20.1%€211.05€68.25€69.7542
Dec ’23€81.55
€129.68
+59.0%
20.0%€209.45€67.73€67.9542
Nov ’23€66.60
€135.62
+103.6%
20.3%€217.59€69.93€77.7041

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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