Alibaba Group Holding Limited

DB:AHLA Stock Report

Market Cap: €187.3b

Alibaba Group Holding Valuation

Is AHLA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AHLA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€138.16
Fair Value
40.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
39
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AHLA (€82.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€138.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AHLA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AHLA?

Key metric: As AHLA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AHLA. This is calculated by dividing AHLA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AHLA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.4x
EarningsCN¥85.85b
Market CapCN¥1.41t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AHLA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AHLA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.3x
PRX Prosus
10.7x0.8%€82.6b
JD JD.com
11.9x8.7%US$51.3b
PDD PDD Holdings
9.9x12.4%US$139.2b
MELI MercadoLibre
64.8x23.8%US$93.1b
AHLA Alibaba Group Holding
16.4x15.6%€192.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AHLA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the peer average (24.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AHLA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AHLA 16.4xIndustry Avg. 21.5xNo. of Companies21PE01632486480+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AHLA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (21.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AHLA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AHLA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.4x
Fair PE Ratio24.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AHLA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AHLA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€82.70
€116.70
+41.1%
12.0%€140.25€82.84n/a39
Jan ’26€80.80
€117.16
+45.0%
12.0%€139.49€82.50n/a40
Dec ’25€82.70
€115.14
+39.2%
13.0%€139.17€80.97n/a43
Nov ’25€89.80
€111.03
+23.6%
13.5%€136.68€79.50n/a44
Oct ’25€101.60
€98.08
-3.5%
13.2%€122.09€71.92n/a44
Sep ’25€74.90
€97.88
+30.7%
12.2%€118.92€72.91n/a44
Aug ’25€72.00
€97.37
+35.2%
13.1%€124.72€74.09n/a43
Jul ’25€67.50
€98.47
+45.9%
13.3%€125.59€74.32n/a42
Jun ’25€72.10
€97.29
+34.9%
13.3%€124.25€73.53n/a42
May ’25€70.10
€98.15
+40.0%
13.8%€124.79€74.80n/a43
Apr ’25€66.80
€98.44
+47.4%
14.3%€125.84€73.82n/a42
Mar ’25€68.90
€99.85
+44.9%
15.7%€136.22€73.79n/a43
Feb ’25€66.55
€105.59
+58.7%
15.9%€137.99€75.34n/a43
Jan ’25€69.75
€113.66
+63.0%
16.7%€145.69€74.61€80.8043
Dec ’24€67.95
€116.92
+72.1%
15.2%€147.38€81.15€82.7043
Nov ’24€77.70
€130.72
+68.2%
13.7%€176.90€93.40€89.8043
Oct ’24€82.05
€132.85
+61.9%
13.3%€175.03€93.67€101.6043
Sep ’24€88.15
€131.23
+48.9%
13.3%€172.60€92.37€74.9044
Aug ’24€91.20
€126.46
+38.7%
14.0%€166.80€84.60€72.0044
Jul ’24€76.35
€126.06
+65.1%
14.4%€164.29€84.04€67.5044
Jun ’24€77.10
€130.56
+69.3%
12.7%€166.84€89.59€72.1044
May ’24€76.50
€132.19
+72.8%
13.6%€198.92€89.83€70.1044
Apr ’24€93.85
€134.19
+43.0%
13.9%€201.73€91.32€66.8043
Mar ’24€84.25
€137.49
+63.2%
15.4%€207.50€68.89€68.9042
Feb ’24€102.70
€134.10
+30.6%
17.2%€202.99€68.71€66.5542
Jan ’24€81.55
€130.43
+59.9%
20.1%€211.05€68.25€69.7542
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 39 Analysts
€116.52
Fair Value
29.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
39
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/18 13:32
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is covered by 100 analysts. 49 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Zixiao YangArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
James KelleherArgus Research Company