PDD Holdings Inc.

DB:9PDA Stock Report

Market Cap: €151.8b

PDD Holdings Valuation

Is 9PDA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9PDA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€389.02
Fair Value
73.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
37
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 9PDA (€104) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€389.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9PDA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9PDA?

Key metric: As 9PDA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 9PDA. This is calculated by dividing 9PDA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 9PDA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.8x
EarningsCN¥112.43b
Market CapCN¥1.22t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9PDA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9PDA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33x
MELI MercadoLibre
63.1x22.19%US$127.5b
PRX Prosus
15.1x-1.41%€104.3b
BABA Alibaba Group Holding
18.2x9.23%US$298.8b
WES Wesfarmers
35.5x8.85%AU$92.2b
9PDA PDD Holdings
10.8x11.99%€169.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9PDA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the peer average (32.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9PDA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
9PDA 10.8xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies22PE01632486480+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9PDA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9PDA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9PDA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.8x
Fair PE Ratio25.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9PDA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9PDA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€104.00
€137.36
+32.07%
11.87%€175.05€96.05n/a37
May ’26€89.60
€131.86
+47.16%
12.13%€169.03€92.75n/a37
Apr ’26€112.00
€139.85
+24.87%
11.26%€178.30€97.83n/a39
Mar ’26€110.50
€140.54
+27.19%
15.33%€184.35€97.43n/a39
Feb ’26€107.50
€140.73
+30.92%
15.28%€183.87€97.18n/a39
Jan ’26€93.80
€141.89
+51.27%
16.50%€198.40€97.34n/a40
Dec ’25€91.40
€143.25
+56.73%
16.40%€198.25€97.27n/a42
Nov ’25€111.50
€155.49
+39.45%
15.73%€217.01€117.14n/a40
Oct ’25€130.00
€147.15
+13.20%
15.77%€214.16€114.38n/a40
Sep ’25€87.20
€151.18
+73.37%
17.64%€227.19€109.10n/a40
Aug ’25€119.50
€191.87
+60.56%
12.46%€251.26€149.14n/a39
Jul ’25€123.00
€191.94
+56.05%
11.93%€253.01€150.18n/a38
Jun ’25€138.50
€188.22
+35.90%
12.22%€250.72€148.37n/a39
May ’25€117.50
€168.16
+43.12%
11.62%€224.11€119.66€89.6040
Apr ’25€107.80
€167.08
+54.99%
11.78%€222.68€118.90€112.0039
Mar ’25€116.40
€160.43
+37.83%
13.42%€208.52€105.10€110.5038
Feb ’25€117.80
€159.35
+35.27%
13.31%€208.36€105.02€107.5038
Jan ’25€129.80
€154.38
+18.94%
11.39%€194.60€105.04€93.8038
Dec ’24€131.80
€151.52
+14.96%
13.36%€195.62€103.19€91.4037
Nov ’24€98.70
€117.21
+18.75%
11.88%€149.73€89.46€111.5036
Oct ’24€92.70
€112.99
+21.89%
12.24%€148.61€76.11€130.0036
Sep ’24€93.40
€113.03
+21.02%
12.30%€148.08€75.83€87.2037
Aug ’24€82.60
€95.80
+15.98%
14.08%€137.04€70.22€119.5038
Jul ’24€63.80
€96.72
+51.61%
13.58%€138.12€70.77€123.0038
Jun ’24€63.70
€100.26
+57.40%
13.60%€143.44€73.50€138.5038
May ’24€59.20
€95.70
+61.66%
14.80%€127.37€57.15€117.5038
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 37 Analysts
€133.27
Fair Value
22.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
37
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/14 23:43
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/14 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

PDD Holdings Inc. is covered by 77 analysts. 41 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
Zixiao YangArete Research Services LLP
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research