Medical Properties Trust, Inc.

DB:M3P Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.6b

Medical Properties Trust Valuation

Is M3P undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of M3P when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: M3P (€4.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€5.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: M3P is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for M3P?

Key metric: As M3P is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for M3P. This is calculated by dividing M3P's market cap by their current revenue.
What is M3P's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.1x
SalesUS$660.17m
Market CapUS$2.69b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does M3P's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for M3P vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.9x
AOX alstria office REIT-AG
5.1x-1.5%€1.2b
HABA Hamborner REIT
4.9x1.7%€519.8m
COFB Cofinimmo
5.4x0.03%€2.1b
AED Aedifica/SA
8x3.7%€2.7b
M3P Medical Properties Trust
4.1x9.1%€2.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: M3P is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (5.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does M3P's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Health Care REITs Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
M3P 4.1xIndustry Avg. 6.5xNo. of Companies7PS03.26.49.612.816+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: M3P is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the Global Health Care REITs industry average (6.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is M3P's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

M3P PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.1x
Fair PS Ratio10.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: M3P is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst M3P forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€4.00
€4.75
+18.8%
25.4%€6.57€2.82n/a8
Nov ’25€4.18
€4.59
+9.9%
23.3%€6.27€3.14n/a8
Oct ’25€5.19
€4.59
-11.5%
23.3%€6.27€3.14n/a8
Sep ’25€3.96
€4.49
+13.5%
19.2%€6.37€3.18n/a8
Aug ’25€4.67
€4.51
-3.4%
18.9%€6.47€3.70n/a8
Jul ’25€3.74
€4.56
+21.8%
17.8%€6.52€3.73n/a9
Jun ’25€4.72
€4.74
+0.3%
17.0%€6.48€3.70n/a9
May ’25€4.26
€4.64
+9.1%
18.2%€6.56€3.75n/a10
Apr ’25€4.34
€4.20
-3.1%
29.4%€6.45€1.84n/a9
Mar ’25€3.90
€4.16
+6.7%
28.5%€6.46€1.85n/a10
Feb ’25€2.94
€4.86
+65.4%
42.1%€9.22€1.84n/a11
Jan ’25€4.49
€6.37
+41.9%
45.1%€13.65€3.64n/a11
Dec ’24€4.60
€6.37
+38.5%
45.1%€13.65€3.64n/a11
Nov ’24€4.41
€7.77
+76.3%
38.9%€14.17€3.78€4.1811
Oct ’24€5.10
€8.78
+72.1%
26.5%€14.20€5.68€5.1911
Sep ’24€6.84
€8.95
+30.8%
23.1%€13.92€6.50€3.9611
Aug ’24€9.03
€10.38
+14.9%
23.3%€16.01€8.00€4.6712
Jul ’24€8.52
€10.66
+25.1%
24.3%€16.56€7.36€3.7412
Jun ’24€7.76
€10.66
+37.4%
25.3%€16.80€7.46€4.7214
May ’24€7.85
€10.74
+36.8%
26.1%€16.41€7.29€4.2614
Apr ’24€7.56
€11.70
+54.8%
23.6%€16.59€7.38€4.3413
Mar ’24€9.41
€13.67
+45.3%
15.7%€17.01€9.45€3.9013
Feb ’24€11.67
€14.16
+21.3%
15.2%€16.57€9.20€2.9413
Jan ’24€10.30
€14.57
+41.5%
18.4%€17.90€9.42€4.4913
Dec ’23€12.33
€15.71
+27.5%
14.0%€18.05€9.50€4.6013
Nov ’23€11.80
€16.75
+42.0%
15.3%€20.07€10.04€4.4113

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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