Grand City Properties (XTRA:GYC) - Share price, News & Analysis

GYC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	4/6

GYC Stock Overview

Grand City Properties S.A. engages in the residential real estate business in Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 29.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 6% per year

Earnings grew by 46.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.4% per year for the next 3 years

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Grand City Properties Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Grand City Properties
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€14.59
52 Week High	€24.14
52 Week Low	€12.87
Beta	0.46
1 Month Change	-10.71%
3 Month Change	-20.27%
1 Year Change	-37.22%
3 Year Change	-27.41%
5 Year Change	-16.84%
Change since IPO	227.50%

Shareholder Returns

	GYC	DE Real Estate	DE Market
7D	5.0%	1.3%	-0.1%
1Y	-37.2%	-37.4%	-22.0%

Return vs Industry: GYC exceeded the German Real Estate industry which returned -38.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GYC underperformed the German Market which returned -23% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GYC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GYC volatility
GYC Average Weekly Movement	4.8%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	5.6%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.0%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: GYC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GYC's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2004	809	Refael Zamir	https://www.grandcityproperties.com

Grand City Properties S.A. engages in the residential real estate business in Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company invests in, manages, and rents real estate properties in North Rhine-Westphalia and Berlin; metropolitan regions of Dresden, Leipzig, and Halle; and the cities in the north of Germany, Bremen, Hamburg, and Hannover, as well as other urban centers, such as Nuremberg, Munch, Mannheim, Frankfurt, and London. Grand City Properties S.A. was founded in 2004 and is based in Luxembourg.

Grand City Properties Fundamentals Summary

How do Grand City Properties's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GYC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€2.41b
Earnings (TTM)	€520.30m
Revenue (TTM)	€531.76m

4.6x

P/E Ratio

4.5x

P/S Ratio

Is GYC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GYC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€531.76m
Cost of Revenue	€218.77m
Gross Profit	€312.99m
Other Expenses	-€207.31m
Earnings	€520.30m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 15, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.15
Gross Margin	58.86%
Net Profit Margin	97.85%
Debt/Equity Ratio	65.6%

How did GYC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.7%

Current Dividend Yield

27%

Payout Ratio

Does GYC pay a reliable dividends?

See GYC dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy GYC by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Grand City Properties dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jun 30 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jul 19 2022
Days until Ex dividend	5 days
Days until Dividend pay date	24 days

Does GYC pay a reliable dividends?

See GYC dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is GYC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GYC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for GYC. This is calculated by dividing GYC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is GYC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€2.41b

GYC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	11.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	21.2x
PEG Ratio	-0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GYC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

GYC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for GYC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	29.5x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GYC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (29.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GYC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the German Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GYC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the German Real Estate industry average (12.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GYC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GYC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.6x
Fair PE Ratio	10.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GYC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GYC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GYC (€14.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€20.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GYC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GYC's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Grand City Properties forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-7.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GYC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: GYC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GYC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GYC's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (4.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GYC's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GYC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.8%).

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Past Performance

How has Grand City Properties performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-7.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GYC has a large one-off gain of €519.1M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: GYC's current net profit margins (97.8%) are higher than last year (66.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GYC's earnings have declined by 7.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GYC's earnings growth over the past year (46.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (-7.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GYC earnings growth over the past year (46.4%) exceeded the Real Estate industry 11.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: GYC's Return on Equity (10.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Grand City Properties's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GYC's short term assets (€1.1B) exceed its short term liabilities (€327.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: GYC's short term assets (€1.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities (€4.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GYC's net debt to equity ratio (56.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GYC's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 77% to 65.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GYC's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (5.8%).

Interest Coverage: GYC's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (6.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Grand City Properties's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

5.72%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: GYC's dividend (5.72%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.47%).

High Dividend: GYC's dividend (5.72%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (4.57%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, GYC has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GYC's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 7 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (26.6%), GYC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (64%), GYC's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.6yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Refael Zamir

1.67yrs

Tenure

€1,374,000

Compensation

Mr. Refael Zamir serves as the Chief Financial Officer and Member of Management Board at Grand City Properties S.A. (“GCP”) and also serves as its Chief Executive Officer since October 01, 2020. He served...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Refael's total compensation ($USD1.45M) is below average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD2.44M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Refael's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: GYC's board of directors are considered experienced (8.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31