Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that ACCENTRO Real Estate AG (ETR:A4Y) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for ACCENTRO Real Estate
What Is ACCENTRO Real Estate's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 ACCENTRO Real Estate had debt of €464.3m, up from €268.9m in one year. However, it also had €36.5m in cash, and so its net debt is €427.8m.
How Healthy Is ACCENTRO Real Estate's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that ACCENTRO Real Estate had liabilities of €171.0m due within 12 months and liabilities of €343.2m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €36.5m and €108.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total €369.5m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's €275.7m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 1.3 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 22.3 hit our confidence in ACCENTRO Real Estate like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, ACCENTRO Real Estate saw its EBIT tank 27% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if ACCENTRO Real Estate can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, ACCENTRO Real Estate burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, ACCENTRO Real Estate's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And even its net debt to EBITDA fails to inspire much confidence. It looks to us like ACCENTRO Real Estate carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you harvest honey without a bee suit, you risk getting stung, so we'd probably stay away from this particular stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for ACCENTRO Real Estate (2 are a bit concerning) you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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About XTRA:A4Y
ACCENTRO Real Estate
Operates as a real estate company that focuses on residential properties in Germany.
Undervalued moderate.