Swire Properties Limited

DB:SW9 Stock Report

Market Cap: €11.3b

Swire Properties Valuation

Is SW9 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SW9 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SW9 (€1.87) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€2.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SW9 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SW9?

Key metric: As SW9 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SW9. This is calculated by dividing SW9's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SW9's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio42.2x
EarningsHK$2.21b
Market CapHK$93.28b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SW9's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SW9 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.7x
SPB Sedlmayr Grund und Immobilien
65.6xn/a€917.9m
GWK3 GAG Immobilien
24xn/a€778.0m
VIH1 VIB Vermögen
3.8x-19.3%€331.2m
DWB Dinkelacker
29.3xn/a€299.9m
SW9 Swire Properties
42.2x25.6%€93.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SW9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the peer average (30.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SW9's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Real Estate Industry?

24 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SW9 42.2xIndustry Avg. 18.1xNo. of Companies32PE01224364860+
24 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SW9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the European Real Estate industry average (18x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SW9's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SW9 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.2x
Fair PE Ratio24.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SW9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SW9 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.87
€2.28
+22.0%
11.3%€2.73€1.88n/a14
Nov ’25€1.86
€2.19
+17.8%
10.5%€2.65€1.82n/a14
Oct ’25€1.77
€2.10
+18.8%
9.5%€2.59€1.79n/a14
Sep ’25€1.67
€2.11
+26.1%
11.4%€2.64€1.64n/a14
Aug ’25€1.40
€2.09
+49.6%
14.0%€2.66€1.42n/a14
Jul ’25€1.42
€2.33
+64.3%
14.9%€3.36€1.89n/a15
Jun ’25€1.62
€2.33
+44.0%
14.9%€3.36€1.89n/a15
May ’25€1.86
€2.33
+25.1%
14.9%€3.35€1.88n/a15
Apr ’25€1.89
€2.31
+22.4%
15.4%€3.35€1.88n/a15
Mar ’25€1.81
€2.34
+29.4%
18.6%€3.66€1.77n/a15
Feb ’25€1.67
€2.40
+43.9%
21.5%€3.65€1.76n/a14
Jan ’25€1.88
€2.50
+32.8%
19.4%€3.61€1.75n/a14
Dec ’24€1.74
€2.62
+50.3%
19.4%€3.75€1.82n/a13
Nov ’24€1.78
€2.62
+47.0%
19.4%€3.75€1.82€1.8613
Oct ’24€1.91
€2.61
+36.9%
18.7%€3.72€1.92€1.7713
Sep ’24€1.83
€2.62
+42.9%
16.9%€3.64€2.07€1.6713
Aug ’24€2.18
€2.64
+21.2%
17.3%€3.61€1.92€1.4013
Jul ’24€2.20
€2.68
+21.9%
17.0%€3.64€1.94€1.4213
Jun ’24€2.16
€2.73
+26.6%
16.8%€3.70€1.97€1.6213
May ’24€2.38
€2.60
+9.1%
18.2%€3.57€1.90€1.8613
Apr ’24€2.30
€2.67
+16.3%
18.2%€3.68€1.96€1.8913
Mar ’24€2.46
€2.66
+8.3%
20.3%€3.73€1.98€1.8113
Feb ’24€2.46
€2.57
+4.5%
20.7%€3.64€1.94€1.6713
Jan ’24€2.30
€2.51
+9.2%
19.7%€3.71€1.97€1.8813
Dec ’23€2.06
€2.70
+30.9%
19.8%€3.84€2.05€1.7413
Nov ’23€1.89
€3.00
+58.6%
16.5%€4.00€2.17€1.7813

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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