Stock Analysis

Vonovia's (ETR:VNA) investors will be pleased with their favorable 51% return over the last year

XTRA:VNA
Source: Shutterstock

The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. For example, the Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) share price is up 47% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 12% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. Zooming out, the stock is actually down 37% in the last three years.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Check out our latest analysis for Vonovia

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year Vonovia grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 55%. We note, however, that extraordinary items have impacted earnings. We note that the earnings per share growth isn't far from the share price growth (of 47%). That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. We don't think its coincidental that the share price is growing at a similar rate to the earnings per share.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:VNA Earnings Per Share Growth October 7th 2024

We know that Vonovia has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Vonovia's TSR for the last 1 year was 51%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Vonovia shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 51% over one year. That's including the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 2% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Vonovia better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Vonovia (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

But note: Vonovia may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.