Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited

DB:TKD Stock Report

Market Cap: €42.0b

Takeda Pharmaceutical Valuation

Is TKD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TKD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€70.48
Fair Value
62.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TKD (€26.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€70.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TKD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TKD?

Key metric: As TKD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TKD. This is calculated by dividing TKD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TKD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.8x
EarningsJP¥208.07b
Market CapJP¥6.61t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TKD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TKD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.1x
MRK Merck KGaA
22.9x10.2%€61.8b
DMP Dermapharm Holding
23.2x17.3%€2.1b
PSG PharmaSGP Holding
17.7x14.1%€333.3m
SUNPHARMA Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
36.6x12.6%₹4.2t
TKD Takeda Pharmaceutical
31.8x17.9%€6.6t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TKD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.8x) compared to the peer average (25.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TKD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Pharmaceuticals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKD 31.8xIndustry Avg. 22.4xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TKD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.8x) compared to the European Pharmaceuticals industry average (22.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TKD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TKD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.8x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TKD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TKD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€26.15
€30.35
+16.1%
9.4%€36.85€26.68n/a17
Jan ’26€24.76
€29.84
+20.5%
9.4%€36.36€26.33n/a17
Dec ’25€25.52
€29.70
+16.4%
11.0%€36.43€25.93n/a17
Nov ’25€25.20
€28.82
+14.4%
10.5%€35.59€25.34n/a18
Oct ’25€25.76
€29.71
+15.3%
10.6%€36.76€26.17n/a18
Sep ’25€26.85
€29.71
+10.7%
10.6%€36.76€26.17n/a18
Aug ’25€25.50
€28.96
+13.6%
9.2%€35.14€25.89n/a17
Jul ’25€24.33
€27.94
+14.8%
10.4%€32.98€24.74n/a17
Jun ’25€24.50
€28.20
+15.1%
10.0%€32.89€24.67n/a18
May ’25€24.56
€28.98
+18.0%
10.1%€35.17€25.47n/a18
Apr ’25€25.71
€29.09
+13.1%
10.3%€35.22€25.50n/a18
Mar ’25€26.80
€29.04
+8.4%
10.2%€35.52€25.11n/a18
Feb ’25€26.45
€29.43
+11.3%
10.4%€36.47€25.78€25.6518
Jan ’25€25.74
€29.55
+14.8%
10.0%€36.57€25.85€24.7619
Dec ’24€25.66
€29.16
+13.6%
10.7%€35.80€25.30€25.5219
Nov ’24€25.75
€30.26
+17.5%
10.7%€36.65€25.91€25.2018
Oct ’24€28.80
€30.65
+6.4%
10.8%€36.71€25.95€25.7618
Sep ’24€28.41
€30.04
+5.7%
11.9%€36.77€23.46€26.8520
Aug ’24€27.26
€30.29
+11.1%
12.0%€37.07€23.65€25.5020
Jul ’24€28.44
€30.12
+5.9%
12.4%€35.78€23.64€24.3319
Jun ’24€29.10
€31.39
+7.9%
12.0%€37.50€24.77€24.5018
May ’24€29.96
€32.63
+8.9%
19.3%€53.29€24.65€24.5618
Apr ’24€30.00
€34.01
+13.4%
17.1%€48.75€26.14€25.7116
Mar ’24€28.60
€33.21
+16.1%
16.5%€48.23€25.86€26.8016
Feb ’24€28.58
€33.29
+16.5%
16.5%€48.89€26.22€26.4516
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 17 Analysts
€29.97
Fair Value
12.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/06 04:29
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/06 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is covered by 38 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Atsushi SekiBarclays
Koichi MameganoBofA Global Research
Hazim BahariCFRA Equity Research