The five-year shareholder returns and company earnings persist lower as MPH Health Care (FRA:93M1) stock falls a further 14% in past week

The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term MPH Health Care AG (FRA:93M1) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 49% over a half decade. Even worse, it's down 27% in about a month, which isn't fun at all.

With the stock having lost 14% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

See our latest analysis for MPH Health Care

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, MPH Health Care moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

We note that the dividend has fallen in the last five years, so that may have contributed to the share price decline. The revenue decline of around 1.7% would not have helped the stock price. So the the weak dividend and revenue data could well help explain the soft share price.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

It is of course excellent to see how MPH Health Care has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for MPH Health Care the TSR over the last 5 years was -47%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that MPH Health Care has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 32% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 8% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for MPH Health Care (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course MPH Health Care may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com