Denali Therapeutics Inc.

DB:4DN Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.0b

Denali Therapeutics Valuation

Is 4DN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4DN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€246.18
Fair Value
91.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 4DN (€20.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€246.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4DN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4DN?

Key metric: As 4DN is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for 4DN. This is calculated by dividing 4DN's market cap by their current book value.
What is 4DN's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio2.3x
BookUS$1.32b
Market CapUS$3.06b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does 4DN's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for 4DN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.2x
BIO3 Biotest
2.1x29.3%€1.4b
FYB Formycon
1.9x22.6%€1.1b
HPHA Heidelberg Pharma
3.2x-33.0%€116.0m
GXI Gerresheimer
1.7x21.8%€2.4b
4DN Denali Therapeutics
2.3x32.8%€3.1b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: 4DN is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.3x) compared to the peer average (2.2x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does 4DN's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Biotechs Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
V9Z Aceragen
0.1xn/aUS$3.12m
V9Z Aceragen
0.1xn/aUS$2.18m
O7P NeuBase Therapeutics
0.1xn/aUS$1.39m
No more companies available in this PB range
4DN 2.3xIndustry Avg. 2.5xNo. of Companies3PB00.61.21.82.43+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: 4DN is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.3x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (2.5x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4DN's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4DN PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio2.3x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 4DN's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4DN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€20.48
€38.57
+88.3%
36.3%€84.45€23.30n/a15
Jan ’26€19.61
€40.70
+107.6%
34.4%€85.64€26.64n/a13
Dec ’25€23.67
€40.16
+69.7%
36.1%€85.91€26.73n/a13
Nov ’25€23.75
€37.98
+59.9%
39.5%€83.05€20.30n/a13
Oct ’25€25.98
€35.52
+36.7%
40.5%€81.51€19.93n/a14
Sep ’25€21.91
€35.34
+61.3%
41.5%€81.85€20.01n/a14
Aug ’25€21.50
€35.65
+65.8%
44.3%€88.04€20.39n/a15
Jul ’25€21.49
€35.60
+65.7%
43.7%€87.48€20.26n/a15
Jun ’25€16.93
€35.60
+110.4%
43.7%€87.48€20.26n/a15
May ’25€14.48
€37.66
+160.2%
43.1%€88.85€22.45n/a15
Apr ’25€19.07
€39.18
+105.4%
43.7%€86.96€21.97n/a15
Mar ’25€18.21
€39.80
+118.6%
42.7%€87.67€23.99n/a15
Feb ’25€14.96
€42.37
+183.3%
45.3%€95.34€23.61n/a15
Jan ’25€20.07
€42.37
+111.1%
45.3%€95.34€23.61€19.6115
Dec ’24€16.50
€45.98
+178.6%
40.5%€95.95€23.76€23.6716
Nov ’24€17.69
€49.02
+177.1%
37.7%€98.47€24.38€23.7515
Oct ’24€19.94
€51.83
+160.0%
37.3%€97.88€24.24€25.9815
Sep ’24€21.17
€52.12
+146.2%
36.7%€96.24€23.83€21.9114
Aug ’24€25.41
€53.99
+112.5%
34.7%€96.20€27.49€21.5014
Jul ’24€27.00
€53.99
+100.0%
34.7%€96.20€27.49€21.4914
Jun ’24€28.20
€54.30
+92.6%
33.9%€96.75€27.64€16.9315
May ’24€22.46
€54.15
+141.1%
34.0%€95.29€29.04€14.4815
Apr ’24€20.44
€54.73
+167.7%
32.9%€96.27€29.34€19.0716
Mar ’24€25.46
€57.15
+124.5%
33.0%€98.48€33.76€18.2116
Feb ’24€28.10
€58.77
+109.1%
31.1%€96.80€33.19€14.9616
Jan ’24€26.21
€60.08
+129.2%
31.3%€98.06€33.62€20.0715
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
€38.29
Fair Value
46.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/09 07:26
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/09 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Denali Therapeutics Inc. is covered by 23 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joel BeattyBaird
Caroline PalomequeBerenberg
Tazeen AhmadBofA Global Research