Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:MA5 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:MA5 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Macromill's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Macromill's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Macromill's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Macromill's earnings are expected to grow by 9.9% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Macromill's revenue is expected to grow by 7.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Macromill's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
4/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Scott Ernst has been the Global Chief Executive Officer of Macromill, Inc. since October 2015 and has been its Representative Executive Officer since February 2016. Mr. Ernst has been Interim Executive Officer of Europe/US/Latin America Operations at Macromill, Inc., since January 08, 2019. He served as the Chief Executive Officer of Macromill, Inc. from October 19, 2015 to January 21, 2016. Mr. Ernst served as Chief Executive Officer at L2, Inc., since August 2014. Mr. Ernst served as an Advisor of Performable, Inc. Mr. Ernst served as President of Compete, Inc. since April 2008 and served as its Chief Executive, building the team from a startup to a $100 million profitable company and a recognized leader in the digital marketing space. He successfully led Compete as both a private company and through the successful integration within WPP, the world's largest marketing services organization. He oversaw Compete's sales operations in its corporate headquarters as well as regional sales executives in Detroit and San Francisco. He served as Chief Client Officer and Vice President of Compete, Inc. Prior to joining Compete, he served as Vice President of Sales as well as Corporate and Business Development for Personify, a customer intelligence software firm. Previously, he served as Vice President of Sales at AdKnowledge, which was acquired by CMGI/Engage. His career includes over 20 years of senior management experience in business intelligence and marketing services companies. In addition, he served for 10 years in various direct sales and business development roles in the health care industry. Over the past decade, Mr. Ernst worked with world-class clients, helping them optimize their customer acquisition, conversion and retention initiatives driven through the online channel. With Compete, he has management oversight for its revenue as well as client services in the Automotive, Financial Services and Wireless vertical practices. He serves as a Director of Massachusetts Innovation & Technology Exchange, Inc. He is an online marketing veteran with complementary experience in advertising, digital media and Web technology, enhances Compete's ability to accomplish this goal through his experience working with global brands such as Carlson Hotels Worldwide, Hyundai Motor America, Upromise, Chrysler and Verizon Wireless to improve their online business performance. He has been a Director of Macromill, Inc. since October 8, 2015. He has been a Member of Advisory Board at Ditto Labs, Inc. since August 2015. Mr. Ernst received his B.S. in Marketing and Entrepreneurial Management from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.
Insufficient data for Scott to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Scott to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Macromill management team is about average.
Interim Exec. Officer of Europe/US/Latin America
Executive Officer & Global CFO
Executive Officer & Global CTO
Senior Vice President of Strategy & Corporate Development
Executive Officer & Global Chief Human Resources Officer
Senior Executive Manager
Representative Executive Officer of Japan Operation
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Macromill board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Macromill, Inc. provides marketing research services worldwide. It offers Video Collect, a video collection research service that allows the user to discover and create hypotheses from consumer's unconscious behavior in IT; and Neuro Research services to investigate and evaluate neural activity reactions, such as electroencephalograms that cannot be caught by questionnaires and interviews. It is also involved in the Internet research; offline research, such as FGI / DI, CLT, and HUT; digital marketing research, database research, self type research, medical research, and promotion × research, as well as survey planning, summarization, and analysis activities. In addition, the company provides social data analysis service; marketing and consulting services; and sampling measures, O2O promotion, advertisement planning, etc. Macromill, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
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