PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk

DB:SMS2 Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.5b

Semen Indonesia (Persero) Valuation

Is SMS2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMS2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMS2 (€0.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€0.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMS2 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMS2?

Key metric: As SMS2 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SMS2. This is calculated by dividing SMS2's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SMS2's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.1x
EarningsRp1.18t
Market CapRp24.85t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SMS2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SMS2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.8x
STO3 Sto SE KGaA
11x7.8%€727.4m
HEI Heidelberg Materials
11.4x7.3%€21.1b
SDF K+S
79.4x61.3%€2.0b
NDA Aurubis
9.3x-6.2%€3.5b
SMS2 Semen Indonesia (Persero)
21.1x31.4%€24.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMS2 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the peer average (27.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMS2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Basic Materials Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SMS2 21.1xIndustry Avg. 12.5xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMS2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the European Basic Materials industry average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMS2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMS2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.1x
Fair PE Ratio33x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SMS2 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMS2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.20
€0.27
+35.5%
28.3%€0.51€0.18n/a15
Nov ’25€0.21
€0.29
+38.4%
23.3%€0.50€0.22n/a14
Oct ’25€0.22
€0.29
+33.8%
24.6%€0.50€0.22n/a16
Sep ’25€0.22
€0.29
+33.5%
24.6%€0.50€0.22n/a16
Aug ’25€0.20
€0.31
+55.0%
24.4%€0.49€0.21n/a15
Jul ’25€0.20
€0.33
+61.2%
24.6%€0.49€0.21n/a16
Jun ’25€0.18
€0.35
+91.0%
24.3%€0.49€0.21n/a16
May ’25€0.25
€0.43
+73.9%
12.9%€0.58€0.33n/a16
Apr ’25€0.32
€0.44
+36.1%
12.0%€0.58€0.37n/a16
Mar ’25€0.34
€0.48
+42.4%
11.8%€0.59€0.37n/a15
Feb ’25€0.35
€0.47
+35.7%
11.7%€0.59€0.37n/a15
Jan ’25€0.35
€0.48
+36.1%
11.2%€0.59€0.37n/a16
Dec ’24€0.37
€0.48
+30.2%
11.2%€0.59€0.37n/a16
Nov ’24€0.34
€0.49
+43.2%
12.0%€0.60€0.38€0.2114
Oct ’24€0.38
€0.52
+38.2%
10.8%€0.61€0.38€0.2216
Sep ’24€0.39
€0.52
+32.1%
11.0%€0.60€0.38€0.2216
Aug ’24€0.39
€0.53
+36.7%
11.6%€0.62€0.38€0.2016
Jul ’24€0.35
€0.53
+51.1%
11.3%€0.63€0.38€0.2017
Jun ’24€0.34
€0.55
+62.0%
11.9%€0.66€0.39€0.1818
May ’24€0.35
€0.58
+65.6%
11.6%€0.80€0.48€0.2519
Apr ’24€0.37
€0.58
+55.5%
11.4%€0.80€0.48€0.3220
Mar ’24€0.43
€0.60
+41.1%
11.0%€0.80€0.48€0.3419
Feb ’24€0.43
€0.60
+37.7%
11.4%€0.79€0.48€0.3519
Jan ’24€0.38
€0.59
+54.1%
11.3%€0.78€0.43€0.3521
Dec ’23€0.44
€0.61
+37.4%
11.0%€0.80€0.44€0.3720
Nov ’23€0.51
€0.65
+26.7%
13.0%€0.84€0.47€0.3419

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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