Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd.

DB:SEH Stock Report

Market Cap: €68.4b

Shin-Etsu Chemical Valuation

Is SEH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SEH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SEH (€33.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€39.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SEH is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SEH?

Key metric: As SEH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SEH. This is calculated by dividing SEH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SEH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.6x
EarningsJP¥512.82b
Market CapJP¥11.08t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SEH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SEH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average44.2x
SY1 Symrise
37.1x13.2%€14.6b
EVK Evonik Industries
35.4x33.1%€8.1b
WCH Wacker Chemie
28.8x37.0%€3.6b
BAS BASF
75.6x34.2%€37.6b
SEH Shin-Etsu Chemical
21.6x10.6%€11.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SEH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the peer average (44.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SEH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SEH 21.6xIndustry Avg. 16.8xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SEH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the European Chemicals industry average (16.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SEH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SEH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.6x
Fair PE Ratio22.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SEH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SEH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€33.79
€43.30
+28.1%
9.5%€47.72€33.65n/a17
Nov ’25€33.14
€43.13
+30.1%
9.2%€47.20€33.28n/a17
Oct ’25€37.76
€45.49
+20.5%
7.8%€48.96€37.66n/a16
Sep ’25€39.27
€45.11
+14.9%
7.5%€48.60€37.38n/a16
Aug ’25€38.87
€44.72
+15.1%
7.9%€49.50€37.13n/a16
Jul ’25€35.47
€40.87
+15.2%
7.6%€45.32€34.86n/a16
Jun ’25€33.87
€42.69
+26.0%
8.9%€47.05€34.99n/a15
May ’25€36.42
€41.89
+15.0%
9.2%€46.32€34.44n/a15
Apr ’25€39.80
€42.66
+7.2%
9.1%€47.76€34.90n/a15
Mar ’25€40.00
€38.50
-3.8%
11.4%€44.72€30.02n/a15
Feb ’25€36.20
€38.39
+6.0%
12.2%€45.91€30.81n/a15
Jan ’25€38.40
€35.36
-7.9%
11.3%€40.89€26.67n/a15
Dec ’24€31.80
€32.92
+3.5%
9.9%€36.94€26.29n/a16
Nov ’24€28.60
€31.76
+11.0%
10.6%€35.53€24.94€33.1416
Oct ’24€27.20
€32.46
+19.3%
9.8%€36.16€25.38€37.7616
Sep ’24€29.20
€32.48
+11.2%
9.8%€35.96€25.35€39.2716
Aug ’24€29.40
€32.67
+11.1%
9.7%€36.04€25.40€38.8716
Jul ’24€30.00
€31.35
+4.5%
11.1%€38.01€25.34€35.4716
Jun ’24€28.60
€31.84
+11.3%
10.1%€39.89€26.59€33.8716
May ’24€26.00
€31.19
+20.0%
12.5%€39.77€21.48€36.4216
Apr ’24€28.95
€32.17
+11.1%
13.6%€41.67€22.50€39.8016
Mar ’24€26.00
€31.04
+19.4%
16.3%€41.32€22.31€40.0016
Feb ’24€26.80
€30.83
+15.1%
18.5%€42.41€22.55€36.2015
Jan ’24€22.68
€30.21
+33.2%
19.7%€42.95€22.61€38.4014
Dec ’23€24.70
€29.68
+20.2%
19.6%€42.21€22.22€31.8014
Nov ’23€20.98
€28.56
+36.1%
18.4%€41.41€21.80€28.6015

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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