Incitec Pivot Limited

DB:I5P Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.7b

Incitec Pivot Valuation

Is I5P undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of I5P when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: I5P (€1.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€3.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: I5P is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for I5P?

Key metric: As I5P is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for I5P. This is calculated by dividing I5P's market cap by their current revenue.
What is I5P's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.1x
SalesAU$5.34b
Market CapAU$6.02b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does I5P's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for I5P vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
LXS LANXESS
0.3x2.8%€2.0b
BAS BASF
0.6x4.5%€38.2b
WCH Wacker Chemie
0.6x5.2%€3.6b
FPE3 Fuchs
1.6x3.6%€5.0b
I5P Incitec Pivot
1.1x0.7%€6.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: I5P is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does I5P's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Chemicals Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2HRA H&R GmbH KGaA
0.09x2.7%US$128.96m
NSAK OTI Greentech
0.03xn/aUS$604.56k
B7Y Byotrol
0.04xn/aUS$246.97k
No more companies available in this PS range
I5P 1.1xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies5PS00.40.81.21.62+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: I5P is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the European Chemicals industry average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is I5P's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

I5P PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: I5P is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst I5P forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.91
€2.03
+6.6%
7.8%€2.41€1.79n/a14
Nov ’25€1.75
€1.95
+11.6%
6.9%€2.19€1.76n/a14
Oct ’25€1.84
€1.98
+7.4%
6.2%€2.26€1.80n/a14
Sep ’25€1.80
€1.87
+4.2%
4.8%€2.03€1.74n/a14
Aug ’25€1.72
€1.91
+10.7%
5.1%€2.06€1.76n/a14
Jul ’25€1.75
€1.97
+13.0%
6.0%€2.16€1.74n/a12
Jun ’25€1.77
€1.97
+11.8%
6.0%€2.16€1.74n/a12
May ’25€1.66
€1.85
+11.7%
7.4%€2.04€1.55n/a14
Apr ’25€1.69
€1.87
+10.3%
7.6%€2.05€1.55n/a14
Mar ’25€1.59
€1.87
+17.8%
7.6%€2.05€1.55n/a14
Feb ’25€1.58
€1.90
+20.2%
8.7%€2.24€1.54n/a14
Jan ’25€1.72
€1.95
+13.4%
8.1%€2.28€1.66n/a14
Dec ’24€1.72
€1.92
+11.7%
8.2%€2.23€1.63n/a12
Nov ’24€1.64
€1.96
+19.7%
8.7%€2.22€1.71€1.7511
Oct ’24€1.89
€1.98
+4.6%
8.7%€2.24€1.73€1.8411
Sep ’24€1.76
€1.96
+11.6%
8.9%€2.20€1.69€1.8011
Aug ’24€1.86
€1.99
+7.0%
8.6%€2.25€1.74€1.7210
Jul ’24€1.65
€2.04
+23.5%
7.4%€2.27€1.84€1.759
Jun ’24€1.78
€2.14
+20.1%
9.1%€2.46€1.91€1.779
May ’24€1.89
€2.36
+25.2%
9.8%€2.75€2.05€1.668
Apr ’24€1.92
€2.47
+28.9%
10.2%€2.91€2.17€1.699
Mar ’24€2.14
€2.72
+27.0%
11.3%€3.20€2.22€1.5911
Feb ’24€2.22
€2.82
+26.9%
11.0%€3.30€2.29€1.5811
Jan ’24€2.38
€2.70
+13.5%
11.1%€3.17€2.20€1.7211
Dec ’23€2.54
€2.74
+8.1%
11.6%€3.26€2.26€1.7212
Nov ’23€2.46
€2.66
+8.3%
11.2%€3.11€2.20€1.6412

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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