Centerra Gold Valuation

Is GOU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GOU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GOU (€6.42) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€8.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GOU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GOU?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GOU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA2.6x
PEG Ratio3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GOU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GOU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.2x
SZG Salzgitter
13.4x42.0%€990.3m
NDA Aurubis
21x34.4%€3.3b
STO3 Sto SE KGaA
12.4x10.7%€1.1b
02P Pearl Gold
2.2xn/a€7.5m
GOU Centerra Gold
25.7x8.5%€2.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GOU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a17.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a17.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (15.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GOU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GOU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.7x
Fair PE Ratio14.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GOU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€6.42
€8.07
+25.8%
11.6%€9.38€5.90n/a10
Jun ’25€6.34
€7.94
+25.2%
11.6%€9.29€5.84n/a10
May ’25€5.78
€7.71
+33.5%
11.4%€9.42€5.79n/a10
Apr ’25€5.36
€7.09
+32.3%
11.5%€8.06€5.18n/a10
Mar ’25€4.61
€7.07
+53.5%
12.1%€8.05€5.16n/a10
Feb ’25€4.85
€7.41
+52.7%
12.3%€8.24€5.21n/a9
Jan ’25€5.47
€7.19
+31.5%
11.6%€7.97€4.97n/a9
Dec ’24€5.58
€7.11
+27.3%
13.3%€8.03€5.01n/a9
Nov ’24€4.89
€7.30
+49.2%
11.3%€8.18€5.73n/a8
Oct ’24€4.63
€7.72
+66.6%
11.3%€8.76€5.84n/a8
Sep ’24€5.46
€7.32
+34.0%
12.4%€8.65€5.67n/a9
Aug ’24€5.79
€7.21
+24.5%
13.1%€8.56€5.55n/a9
Jul ’24€5.32
€7.22
+35.8%
14.2%€8.56€5.00n/a9
Jun ’24€5.60
€7.01
+25.3%
15.2%€8.55€4.99€6.349
May ’24€6.26
€7.36
+17.5%
14.0%€8.85€5.05€5.789
Apr ’24€5.99
€6.61
+10.3%
16.7%€8.46€4.26€5.369
Mar ’24€5.96
€6.76
+13.5%
16.5%€8.61€4.34€4.619
Feb ’24€5.87
€6.16
+4.9%
15.9%€7.79€4.27€4.859
Jan ’24€4.92
€6.35
+29.1%
25.5%€10.49€4.67€5.4710
Dec ’23€5.10
€6.62
+29.8%
24.8%€10.86€4.88€5.5810
Nov ’23€4.71
€6.96
+47.9%
25.9%€11.37€5.15€4.8910
Oct ’23€4.36
€7.26
+66.5%
24.8%€11.52€5.41€4.6310
Sep ’23€4.47
€7.18
+60.5%
24.3%€11.22€5.38€5.4610
Aug ’23€6.06
€9.29
+53.4%
20.9%€11.41€6.16€5.799
Jul ’23€6.36
€10.09
+58.6%
12.2%€11.43€7.68€5.329
Jun ’23€7.19
€9.89
+37.6%
12.2%€11.31€7.56€5.609

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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