Centerra Gold Inc.

DB:GOU Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.2b

Centerra Gold Valuation

Is GOU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GOU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GOU (€5.62) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€4.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GOU is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GOU?

Key metric: As GOU is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GOU. This is calculated by dividing GOU's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GOU's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.1x
EarningsUS$104.12m
Market CapUS$1.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GOU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GOU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.4x
NDA Aurubis
8.7x-6.2%€3.3b
SDF K+S
78.5x61.1%€2.0b
STO3 Sto SE KGaA
10.7x3.5%€706.9m
ACT AlzChem Group
11.5x12.8%€578.0m
GOU Centerra Gold
12.1x-0.1%€1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GOU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the peer average (27.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GOU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GOU 12.1xIndustry Avg. 11.1xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GOU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GOU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.1x
Fair PE Ratio11.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GOU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GOU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€5.62
€8.47
+50.6%
10.6%€9.58€6.13n/a9
Nov ’25€6.16
€8.51
+38.1%
8.0%€9.28€6.79n/a10
Oct ’25€6.50
€8.41
+29.4%
8.2%€9.39€6.79n/a10
Sep ’25€6.37
€7.91
+24.2%
10.2%€8.76€5.92n/a10
Aug ’25€6.13
€8.22
+33.9%
10.5%€9.37€6.10n/a10
Jul ’25€6.17
€8.13
+31.8%
10.9%€9.46€6.15n/a10
Jun ’25€6.34
€7.94
+25.2%
11.6%€9.29€5.85n/a10
May ’25€5.78
€7.71
+33.5%
11.4%€9.42€5.79n/a10
Apr ’25€5.36
€7.09
+32.3%
11.5%€8.06€5.18n/a10
Mar ’25€4.61
€7.07
+53.5%
12.1%€8.05€5.16n/a10
Feb ’25€4.85
€7.41
+52.7%
12.3%€8.24€5.21n/a9
Jan ’25€5.47
€7.19
+31.5%
11.6%€7.97€4.97n/a9
Dec ’24€5.58
€7.11
+27.3%
13.3%€8.03€5.01n/a9
Nov ’24€4.89
€7.30
+49.2%
11.3%€8.18€5.73€6.168
Oct ’24€4.63
€7.72
+66.6%
11.3%€8.76€5.84€6.508
Sep ’24€5.46
€7.32
+34.0%
12.4%€8.65€5.67€6.379
Aug ’24€5.79
€7.21
+24.5%
13.1%€8.56€5.55€6.139
Jul ’24€5.32
€7.22
+35.8%
14.2%€8.56€5.00€6.179
Jun ’24€5.60
€7.01
+25.3%
15.2%€8.55€4.99€6.349
May ’24€6.26
€7.36
+17.5%
14.0%€8.85€5.05€5.789
Apr ’24€5.99
€6.61
+10.3%
16.7%€8.46€4.26€5.369
Mar ’24€5.96
€6.76
+13.5%
16.5%€8.61€4.34€4.619
Feb ’24€5.87
€6.16
+4.9%
15.9%€7.79€4.27€4.859
Jan ’24€4.92
€6.35
+29.1%
25.5%€10.49€4.67€5.4710
Dec ’23€5.10
€6.62
+29.8%
24.8%€10.86€4.88€5.5810
Nov ’23€4.71
€6.96
+47.9%
25.9%€11.37€5.15€4.8910

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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