Fresnillo plc

DB:FNL Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.7b

Fresnillo Valuation

Is FNL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FNL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€11.63
Fair Value
21.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: FNL (€9.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€11.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FNL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FNL?

Key metric: As FNL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FNL. This is calculated by dividing FNL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FNL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio27.8x
EarningsUS$247.83m
Market CapUS$6.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FNL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FNL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.5x
NDA Aurubis
8.4x-2.6%€3.5b
EVK Evonik Industries
38.7x33.0%€8.9b
FPE3 Fuchs
19.4x8.6%€5.1b
WCH Wacker Chemie
27.5x37.0%€3.4b
FNL Fresnillo
27.8x32.2%€5.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FNL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.8x) compared to the peer average (23.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FNL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FNL 27.8xIndustry Avg. 12.5xNo. of Companies15PE0816243240+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FNL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.8x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FNL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FNL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.8x
Fair PE Ratio33.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FNL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FNL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€9.18
€9.93
+8.3%
14.4%€13.56€7.70n/a13
Jan ’26€7.69
€9.89
+28.6%
12.9%€13.58€7.90n/a13
Dec ’25€7.95
€9.91
+24.7%
13.2%€13.48€7.87n/a13
Nov ’25€8.75
€9.43
+7.8%
15.7%€13.58€7.69n/a13
Oct ’25€7.60
€8.52
+12.1%
17.1%€12.75€7.24n/a13
Sep ’25€6.72
€8.29
+23.4%
17.8%€12.68€7.05n/a13
Aug ’25€7.01
€8.61
+22.8%
18.7%€13.08€7.22n/a12
Jul ’25€6.64
€8.31
+25.1%
21.8%€13.17€6.61n/a12
Jun ’25€7.27
€8.19
+12.7%
22.2%€13.06€6.34n/a12
May ’25€6.63
€7.73
+16.5%
24.2%€13.20€5.70n/a12
Apr ’25€5.48
€6.94
+26.6%
32.0%€13.41€4.49n/a12
Mar ’25€5.51
€7.16
+29.9%
29.8%€12.75€4.46n/a12
Feb ’25€6.04
€7.37
+22.0%
29.9%€12.76€4.47€8.4712
Jan ’25€6.80
€7.72
+13.6%
25.4%€12.63€4.24€7.6912
Dec ’24€6.92
€7.64
+10.4%
25.9%€12.63€4.24€7.9512
Nov ’24€6.30
€7.77
+23.2%
27.6%€12.99€3.88€8.7512
Oct ’24€6.41
€8.32
+29.8%
26.2%€13.72€3.99€7.6012
Sep ’24€6.82
€8.07
+18.3%
24.7%€13.34€3.88€6.7214
Aug ’24€7.00
€8.39
+19.8%
22.2%€13.29€6.13€7.0114
Jul ’24€7.25
€8.94
+23.2%
20.7%€13.76€6.94€6.6414
Jun ’24€7.64
€9.07
+18.8%
20.1%€13.84€6.98€7.2714
May ’24€8.25
€8.88
+7.7%
20.6%€13.61€6.70€6.6314
Apr ’24€8.59
€8.94
+4.1%
19.6%€13.28€6.78€5.4814
Mar ’24€8.80
€9.95
+13.1%
14.7%€13.58€8.16€5.5115
Feb ’24€8.98
€9.75
+8.6%
14.8%€13.33€7.88€6.0415
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
€10.08
Fair Value
8.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/06 04:51
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/06 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Fresnillo plc is covered by 34 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Amos FletcherBarclays
David Simon ButlerBarclays
Richard HatchBerenberg