Graphic Packaging Holding Company

DB:4W8 Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.1b

Graphic Packaging Holding Valuation

Is 4W8 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of 4W8 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: 4W8 (€10.34) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (€23.1)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 4W8 is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4W8?

Key metric: As 4W8 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4W8. This is calculated by dividing 4W8's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4W8's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.3x
EarningsUS$444.00m
Market CapUS$3.67b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4W8's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4W8 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average66.3x
FPE3 Fuchs
16.5x7.02%€4.4b
WCH Wacker Chemie
183x48.46%€4.0b
TKA thyssenkrupp
41x37.62%€6.8b
ACT AlzChem Group
24.6x19.66%€1.5b
4W8 Graphic Packaging Holding
8.3x-1.46%€3.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4W8 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (66.3x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4W8's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4W8 8.3xIndustry Avg. 16.5xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4W8 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the Global Packaging industry average (16.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4W8's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4W8 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.3x
Fair PE Ratio16x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4W8 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4W8 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€10.34
€12.42
+20.15%
24.68%€18.67€9.34n/a10
Feb ’27€12.23
€14.65
+19.86%
15.95%€18.77€10.24n/a10
Jan ’27€12.73
€15.95
+25.33%
11.58%€19.64€12.81n/a10
Dec ’26€14.02
€17.26
+23.15%
12.14%€20.82€14.58n/a11
Nov ’26€13.67
€19.95
+45.94%
17.88%€28.35€17.23n/a11
Oct ’26€16.56
€21.68
+30.95%
12.39%€28.02€17.04n/a12
Sep ’26€18.75
€21.89
+16.78%
11.31%€28.12€19.15n/a12
Aug ’26€18.46
€22.57
+22.32%
11.96%€28.81€19.62n/a12
Jul ’26€18.43
€22.39
+21.49%
13.78%€28.22€18.01n/a13
Jun ’26€19.47
€23.36
+19.96%
13.30%€28.94€18.47n/a12
May ’26€22.19
€26.22
+18.15%
8.61%€29.14€21.26n/a12
Apr ’26€24.18
€28.66
+18.54%
6.47%€30.56€25.00n/a11
Mar ’26€25.52
€30.01
+17.59%
8.12%€35.17€25.80n/a11
Feb ’26€26.27
€31.44
+19.69%
8.03%€35.56€26.09€12.2311
Jan ’26€25.77
€30.80
+19.51%
10.28%€34.84€22.72€12.7311
Dec ’25€28.05
€30.63
+9.21%
10.28%€34.66€22.60€14.0211
Nov ’25€25.70
€29.50
+14.80%
9.99%€33.83€22.07€13.6711
Oct ’25€26.67
€29.75
+11.55%
9.96%€33.43€21.57€16.5612
Sep ’25€26.67
€30.52
+14.44%
9.72%€34.09€21.99€18.7512
Aug ’25€27.18
€30.61
+12.61%
9.29%€33.25€22.16€18.4612
Jul ’25€24.04
€28.19
+17.26%
10.25%€30.83€19.62€18.4311
Jun ’25€25.92
€27.86
+7.48%
10.13%€30.65€19.51€19.4711
May ’25€24.05
€28.56
+18.74%
10.24%€31.80€19.64€22.1912
Apr ’25€26.84
€27.99
+4.28%
10.84%€30.45€19.37€24.1811
Mar ’25€23.38
€27.74
+18.65%
11.16%€30.41€19.35€25.5210
Feb ’25€23.50
€25.82
+9.89%
12.99%€30.08€18.23€26.279
€12.17
Fair Value
15.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/02/16 20:09
End of Day Share Price 2026/02/16 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is covered by 26 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ghansham PanjabiBaird
Mark WildeBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Charlie Muir-SandsBNP Paribas