Graphic Packaging Holding Company

DB:4W8 Stock Report

Market Cap: €7.9b

Graphic Packaging Holding Valuation

Is 4W8 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4W8 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4W8 (€26.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€90.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4W8 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4W8?

Key metric: As 4W8 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4W8. This is calculated by dividing 4W8's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4W8's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.5x
EarningsUS$716.00m
Market CapUS$8.22b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4W8's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4W8 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.8x
EVK Evonik Industries
33.4x32.9%€7.6b
FPE3 Fuchs
18.1x8.6%€4.8b
SY1 Symrise
36.4x13.6%€14.3b
HEI Heidelberg Materials
11.6x8.7%€21.5b
4W8 Graphic Packaging Holding
11.5x6.4%€8.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4W8 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the peer average (24.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4W8's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4W8 11.5xIndustry Avg. 18.1xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4W8 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (18.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4W8's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4W8 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.5x
Fair PE Ratio14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4W8 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4W8 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€26.40
€31.37
+18.8%
10.3%€35.49€23.15n/a11
Dec ’25€28.05
€30.63
+9.2%
10.3%€34.66€22.60n/a11
Nov ’25€25.70
€29.50
+14.8%
10.0%€33.83€22.07n/a11
Oct ’25€26.67
€29.75
+11.6%
10.0%€33.43€21.57n/a12
Sep ’25€26.67
€30.52
+14.4%
9.7%€34.09€21.99n/a12
Aug ’25€27.18
€30.61
+12.6%
9.3%€33.25€22.16n/a12
Jul ’25€24.04
€28.19
+17.3%
10.3%€30.83€19.62n/a11
Jun ’25€25.92
€27.86
+7.5%
10.1%€30.65€19.51n/a11
May ’25€24.05
€28.56
+18.7%
10.2%€31.80€19.64n/a12
Apr ’25€26.84
€27.99
+4.3%
10.8%€30.45€19.37n/a11
Mar ’25€23.38
€27.74
+18.6%
11.2%€30.41€19.35n/a10
Feb ’25€23.50
€25.82
+9.9%
13.0%€30.08€18.23n/a9
Jan ’25€22.20
€25.17
+13.4%
14.4%€30.03€17.29n/a9
Dec ’24€21.09
€25.15
+19.2%
14.7%€30.12€17.34€28.059
Nov ’24€20.21
€26.31
+30.2%
14.1%€31.23€17.98€25.7010
Oct ’24€20.92
€27.57
+31.8%
9.3%€32.49€24.14€26.6710
Sep ’24€20.70
€27.32
+32.0%
9.1%€31.97€23.75€26.6711
Aug ’24€21.11
€27.47
+30.1%
10.4%€31.87€20.94€27.1812
Jul ’24€21.90
€28.24
+28.9%
11.7%€33.12€21.16€24.0413
Jun ’24€22.28
€28.35
+27.3%
9.4%€33.59€25.42€25.9213
May ’24€21.90
€26.82
+22.5%
9.3%€31.69€22.64€24.0513
Apr ’24€23.40
€27.63
+18.1%
10.5%€33.17€23.69€26.8413
Mar ’24€22.80
€27.31
+19.8%
10.5%€32.87€23.48€23.3813
Feb ’24€21.40
€25.78
+20.5%
13.2%€30.46€15.69€23.5014
Jan ’24€20.80
€26.00
+25.0%
12.7%€30.15€16.02€22.2015
Dec ’23€21.60
€27.21
+26.0%
12.0%€32.11€17.06€21.0916

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 10:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is covered by 28 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ghansham PanjabiBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Mark WildeBMO Capital Markets Equity Research