Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V.

DB:4GE Stock Report

Market Cap: €37.5b

Grupo México. de Valuation

Is 4GE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4GE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4GE (€4.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€6.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4GE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4GE?

Key metric: As 4GE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4GE. This is calculated by dividing 4GE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4GE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.9x
EarningsUS$3.60b
Market CapUS$39.33b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4GE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4GE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average40.5x
BAS BASF
77.2x34.2%€38.4b
HEI Heidelberg Materials
11.5x7.8%€21.4b
SY1 Symrise
37.3x13.2%€14.6b
EVK Evonik Industries
36x33.1%€8.2b
4GE Grupo México. de
10.9x6.1%€799.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4GE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the peer average (40.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4GE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4GE 10.9xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4GE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4GE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4GE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.9x
Fair PE Ratio20.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4GE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4GE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€4.72
€5.63
+19.4%
21.2%€7.47€2.26n/a16
Nov ’25€4.82
€5.63
+16.9%
21.2%€7.47€2.26n/a16
Oct ’25€5.18
€5.60
+8.2%
22.2%€7.80€2.19n/a16
Sep ’25€4.68
€5.61
+19.8%
22.7%€7.88€2.21n/a16
Aug ’25€5.29
€5.70
+7.7%
23.3%€8.02€2.25n/a16
Jul ’25€5.05
€5.72
+13.2%
22.3%€7.98€2.29n/a15
Jun ’25€5.93
€5.62
-5.3%
21.5%€7.25€2.26n/a15
May ’25€5.97
€5.62
-5.9%
22.0%€7.34€2.28n/a15
Apr ’25€5.60
€5.35
-4.5%
23.4%€7.28€2.26n/a16
Mar ’25€4.60
€5.11
+11.2%
22.8%€7.32€2.27n/a16
Feb ’25€4.99
€4.92
-1.5%
22.0%€7.07€2.26n/a15
Jan ’25€5.00
€4.79
-4.1%
22.0%€6.96€2.22n/a15
Dec ’24€4.13
€4.72
+14.4%
21.3%€7.04€2.25n/a16
Nov ’24€3.80
€4.89
+28.6%
23.3%€7.24€2.31€4.8216
Oct ’24€4.55
€5.25
+15.5%
23.0%€7.95€2.31€5.1817
Sep ’24€4.45
€5.00
+12.4%
22.2%€7.73€2.25€4.6818
Aug ’24€4.65
€4.91
+5.5%
22.8%€7.65€2.22€5.2917
Jul ’24€4.51
€4.81
+6.6%
21.3%€7.51€2.24€5.0519
Jun ’24€4.29
€4.77
+11.0%
19.9%€6.92€2.28€5.9319
May ’24€4.41
€4.54
+3.0%
20.1%€6.73€2.22€5.9719
Apr ’24€4.33
€4.37
+0.9%
19.8%€6.80€2.24€5.6018
Mar ’24€4.47
€4.42
-1.1%
19.8%€6.96€2.29€4.6019
Feb ’24€4.16
€4.16
+0.1%
19.6%€6.46€2.22€4.9919
Jan ’24€3.38
€4.11
+21.6%
21.5%€6.68€2.30€5.0019
Dec ’23€3.89
€4.22
+8.5%
21.4%€6.78€2.36€4.1319
Nov ’23€3.79
€4.37
+15.3%
22.5%€7.10€2.47€3.8019

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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