Evonik Industries (XTRA:EVK): Revisiting Valuation After Lowered Q3 2025 Revenue Guidance

Evonik Industries (XTRA:EVK) drew fresh investor interest after issuing new earnings guidance for the third quarter of 2025, projecting revenue of about €3.4 billion. This is a decrease from €3.8 billion last year. Revenue guidance updates like this often prompt investors to revisit their outlook on the stock.

See our latest analysis for Evonik Industries.

While Evonik Industries’ revised third-quarter guidance has investors reconsidering their expectations, the share price has generally drifted down this year, reflecting fading momentum. In fact, the stock’s total shareholder return over the past year is down a modest 0.25%, which suggests that the market was already cautious long before today’s update.

If today’s revenue news has you thinking about broader market trends, it might be the perfect moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares trading at a notable discount to analyst targets, and the stock lagging over the past year, the question now is whether Evonik Industries is undervalued or if the market already reflects its future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 24.8% Undervalued

Evonik Industries' most popular valuation narrative points to a fair value of €19.88, well above the last closing price of €14.94. This gap is drawing attention to the company's potential, even as the market remains cautious after recent guidance updates.

Ongoing portfolio shift towards high-margin specialty chemicals and away from commoditized businesses aligns with strict regulatory trends and customer demands for eco-friendly, high-value additives. This supports both top-line growth and structural margin uplift over the long term. Increasing support from EU decarbonization and circular economy initiatives is likely to benefit Evonik's innovation funding and operational cost base (through incentives and energy transition support), providing structural tailwinds for sustainable earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

There’s a fascinating calculation at play here. It puts the company’s future growth, margins, and profit power under the microscope. Want to see what the narrative assumes about next-level earnings, or the multiples that underpin this bullish target? It’s all waiting in the full breakdown.

Result: Fair Value of €19.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weak demand in key sectors, alongside ongoing exposure to low-margin commodities, could challenge Evonik Industries' margin expansion and future growth prospects.

Find out about the key risks to this Evonik Industries narrative.

Build Your Own Evonik Industries Narrative

If you see things differently or want to analyze the numbers for yourself, you can easily construct your own unique perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Evonik Industries research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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