Lincoln National Corporation

DB:LCO Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.3b

Lincoln National Valuation

Is LCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LCO (€30.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€112.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LCO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LCO?

Key metric: As LCO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LCO. This is calculated by dividing LCO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LCO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.7x
EarningsUS$262.00m
Market CapUS$5.40b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.9x
WUW Wüstenrot & Württembergische
26.1x25.4%€1.1b
TLX Talanx
11.2x5.0%€21.2b
HNR1 Hannover Rück
13.3x5.6%€29.8b
NBG6 NÜRNBERGER Beteiligungs-AG
13x38.8%€541.4m
LCO Lincoln National
20.7x20.5%€5.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the peer average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LCO 20.7xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies12PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.7x
Fair PE Ratio10.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LCO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€30.37
€34.82
+14.7%
11.4%€43.42€27.98n/a11
Dec ’25€33.19
€33.99
+2.4%
11.3%€42.59€27.45n/a11
Nov ’25€31.52
€31.54
+0.07%
9.2%€36.91€25.84n/a11
Oct ’25€27.84
€29.90
+7.4%
10.7%€35.94€25.16n/a11
Sep ’25€29.51
€29.68
+0.6%
10.2%€34.28€25.26n/a10
Aug ’25€30.27
€30.21
-0.2%
9.2%€35.21€25.95n/a10
Jul ’25€28.45
€29.41
+3.4%
11.0%€35.47€25.20n/a10
Jun ’25€29.65
€27.93
-5.8%
8.7%€32.26€24.89n/a10
May ’25€25.80
€27.96
+8.4%
8.4%€32.62€24.23n/a10
Apr ’25€29.44
€25.98
-11.8%
7.4%€30.40€23.95n/a10
Mar ’25€25.15
€26.08
+3.7%
6.6%€29.70€24.13n/a10
Feb ’25€25.03
€26.50
+5.9%
12.4%€33.32€20.36n/a11
Jan ’25€24.51
€23.52
-4.1%
14.6%€27.52€15.59€30.0011
Dec ’24€21.57
€22.50
+4.3%
17.2%€28.03€14.95€33.1912
Nov ’24€20.49
€24.22
+18.2%
15.5%€30.30€17.04€31.5212
Oct ’24€22.48
€24.59
+9.4%
16.7%€30.27€17.03€27.8412
Sep ’24€23.48
€23.91
+1.8%
17.5%€29.33€16.50€29.5112
Aug ’24€25.71
€22.38
-12.9%
17.0%€27.57€15.12€30.2712
Jul ’24€23.24
€22.01
-5.3%
18.9%€28.43€15.59€28.4512
Jun ’24€19.44
€22.82
+17.4%
21.1%€30.88€14.97€29.6513
May ’24€19.11
€25.18
+31.8%
20.1%€33.53€14.50€25.8014
Apr ’24€20.20
€31.12
+54.0%
17.4%€36.38€14.92€29.4414
Mar ’24€29.80
€32.20
+8.0%
11.1%€36.62€23.48€25.1514
Feb ’24€32.40
€31.18
-3.8%
12.1%€36.92€23.08€25.0314
Jan ’24€28.60
€37.13
+29.8%
19.9%€51.80€23.55€24.5114

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/02 17:40
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lincoln National Corporation is covered by 29 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Alex ScottBarclays
Jay GelbBarclays