Fresenius Medical Care AG Just Missed EPS By 81%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Explore Fresenius Medical Care's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

Fresenius Medical Care AG (ETR:FME) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.0% to €40.92 in the week after its latest half-year results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €9.7b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 81% to hit €0.77 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Fresenius Medical Care's 17 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €19.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 35% to €3.02. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €19.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.18 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Fresenius Medical Care

The consensus price target held steady at €50.65, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Fresenius Medical Care analyst has a price target of €67.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €40.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Fresenius Medical Care shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Fresenius Medical Care's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 2.5% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Fresenius Medical Care is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fresenius Medical Care. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €50.65, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Fresenius Medical Care going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Fresenius Medical Care is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.