Earnings Update: Fresenius Medical Care AG (ETR:FME) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Shareholders of Fresenius Medical Care AG (ETR:FME) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to €49.94 following its latest first-quarter results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of €1.83 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of €4.9b came in 2.9% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Fresenius Medical Care's 17 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €19.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 54% to €3.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €19.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.27 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Fresenius Medical Care

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €48.28. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Fresenius Medical Care, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €60.00 and the most bearish at €37.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Fresenius Medical Care's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Fresenius Medical Care's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 2.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Fresenius Medical Care.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €48.28, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Fresenius Medical Care going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Fresenius Medical Care's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.