Treasury Wine Estates Limited

DB:T7W Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.7b

Treasury Wine Estates Valuation

Is T7W undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of T7W when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: T7W (€6.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€16.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: T7W is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for T7W?

Key metric: As T7W is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for T7W. This is calculated by dividing T7W's market cap by their current earnings.
What is T7W's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio92.5x
EarningsAU$98.90m
Market CapAU$9.15b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does T7W's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for T7W vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.8x
SWA Schloss Wachenheim
15.9x17.7%€116.4m
SZU Südzucker
6.8x-10.2%€2.3b
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
9.9x-1.0%€2.0b
EMI Emperador
42.5x26.5%₱284.8b
T7W Treasury Wine Estates
92.5x26.8%€9.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: T7W is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (92.5x) compared to the peer average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does T7W's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
T7W 92.5xIndustry Avg. 17.3xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: T7W is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (92.5x) compared to the European Beverage industry average (17.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is T7W's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

T7W PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio92.5x
Fair PE Ratio28.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: T7W is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (92.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst T7W forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€6.95
€8.69
+25.1%
9.0%€10.12€7.05n/a14
Nov ’25€6.66
€8.65
+29.9%
10.0%€10.20€7.11n/a15
Oct ’25€7.19
€8.43
+17.2%
10.0%€9.93€6.92n/a15
Sep ’25€6.96
€8.49
+22.0%
10.0%€10.01€6.97n/a15
Aug ’25€7.39
€8.50
+15.0%
9.7%€9.66€6.94n/a15
Jul ’25€7.46
€8.75
+17.3%
9.9%€9.94€7.14n/a15
Jun ’25€6.88
€8.51
+23.8%
11.4%€10.16€6.77n/a15
May ’25€7.32
€8.36
+14.3%
12.4%€10.30€6.67n/a15
Apr ’25€7.45
€8.08
+8.5%
13.3%€10.27€6.04n/a15
Mar ’25€7.40
€7.96
+7.6%
10.1%€9.25€6.06n/a14
Feb ’25€6.45
€7.91
+22.6%
10.6%€8.95€5.77n/a14
Jan ’25€6.50
€8.04
+23.7%
11.5%€9.50€5.84n/a13
Dec ’24€6.40
€7.77
+21.4%
11.8%€9.37€5.67n/a14
Nov ’24€7.20
€7.88
+9.4%
11.6%€9.59€5.75€6.6614
Oct ’24€7.35
€7.68
+4.4%
12.1%€9.27€5.89€7.1915
Sep ’24€6.80
€7.68
+12.9%
12.1%€9.27€5.89€6.9615
Aug ’24€6.75
€7.90
+17.0%
12.7%€9.62€6.03€7.3916
Jul ’24€6.70
€8.11
+21.0%
11.4%€9.69€6.08€7.4616
Jun ’24€6.95
€8.11
+16.6%
11.4%€9.69€6.08€6.8816
May ’24€8.25
€8.78
+6.4%
12.3%€10.61€6.13€7.3215
Apr ’24€7.93
€8.83
+11.4%
10.4%€9.67€6.28€7.4515
Mar ’24€8.61
€8.97
+4.3%
10.7%€9.91€6.43€7.4016
Feb ’24€9.25
€9.13
-1.4%
11.5%€10.39€6.49€6.4516
Jan ’24€8.46
€8.75
+3.5%
10.7%€10.09€6.62€6.5016
Dec ’23€8.80
€8.90
+1.1%
10.7%€10.32€6.77€6.4017
Nov ’23€8.24
€8.84
+7.3%
10.6%€10.23€6.71€7.2017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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