PT Gudang Garam Tbk

DB:GGG Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.6b

Gudang Garam Valuation

Is GGG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GGG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GGG (€0.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€2.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GGG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GGG?

Key metric: As GGG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GGG. This is calculated by dividing GGG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GGG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.9x
EarningsRp1.86t
Market CapRp25.83t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GGG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GGG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.1x
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
10x-1.0%€2.0b
SZU Südzucker
6.8x-10.2%€2.3b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
15.3xn/a€630.5m
NLM FRoSTA
12.2xn/a€415.6m
GGG Gudang Garam
13.9x25.6%€25.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GGG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the peer average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GGG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Tobacco Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GGG 13.9xIndustry Avg. 11.8xNo. of Companies9PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GGG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the Global Tobacco industry average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GGG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GGG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.9x
Fair PE Ratio27.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GGG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GGG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.74
€0.91
+22.4%
39.5%€1.80€0.48n/a11
Nov ’25€0.76
€0.92
+21.3%
36.5%€1.76€0.47n/a11
Oct ’25€0.91
€1.06
+16.2%
37.9%€1.96€0.65n/a12
Sep ’25€0.87
€1.12
+29.2%
39.3%€1.93€0.64n/a12
Aug ’25€0.98
€1.18
+19.9%
34.1%€1.87€0.74n/a12
Jul ’25€0.90
€1.26
+41.1%
31.7%€1.87€0.74n/a12
Jun ’25€1.00
€1.32
+32.4%
31.9%€1.89€0.75n/a13
May ’25€1.00
€1.43
+43.1%
23.3%€1.90€0.91n/a13
Apr ’25€1.15
€1.52
+32.6%
21.2%€1.96€0.94n/a13
Mar ’25€1.15
€1.52
+32.6%
21.2%€1.96€0.94n/a13
Feb ’25€1.06
€1.54
+45.1%
20.3%€1.93€0.92n/a14
Jan ’25€1.10
€1.69
+53.5%
18.4%€2.15€1.17n/a12
Dec ’24€1.14
€1.67
+46.4%
18.4%€2.12€1.16n/a12
Nov ’24€1.24
€1.80
+45.4%
15.9%€2.14€1.22€0.7611
Oct ’24€1.45
€1.86
+28.0%
16.1%€2.19€1.25€0.9111
Sep ’24€1.35
€1.85
+36.7%
16.1%€2.16€1.23€0.8711
Aug ’24€1.58
€1.84
+16.5%
15.9%€2.17€1.24€0.9811
Jul ’24€1.60
€1.87
+16.7%
19.4%€2.31€1.11€0.9010
Jun ’24€1.58
€1.75
+10.6%
22.0%€2.35€1.13€1.0012
May ’24€1.66
€1.65
-0.7%
22.9%€2.34€1.13€1.0011
Apr ’24€1.50
€1.59
+6.3%
25.1%€2.29€1.11€1.1510
Mar ’24€1.55
€1.55
+0.3%
26.4%€2.32€1.12€1.1510
Feb ’24€1.50
€1.49
-0.9%
30.3%€2.31€0.92€1.0610
Jan ’24€1.18
€1.41
+19.3%
30.5%€2.32€0.74€1.1011
Dec ’23€1.27
€1.41
+10.9%
30.5%€2.32€0.74€1.1411
Nov ’23€1.42
€1.69
+19.2%
42.7%€3.62€0.78€1.2412

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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