Flowers Foods, Inc.

DB:FWF Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.5b

Flowers Foods Valuation

Is FWF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FWF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FWF (€21.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€31.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FWF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FWF?

Key metric: As FWF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FWF. This is calculated by dividing FWF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FWF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.6x
EarningsUS$240.67m
Market CapUS$4.72b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FWF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FWF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.2x
SZU Südzucker
6.8x-10.2%€2.3b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
15.8xn/a€630.5m
NLM FRoSTA
12.2xn/a€415.6m
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
9.9x-1.0%€2.0b
FWF Flowers Foods
19.6x6.5%€4.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FWF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the peer average (11.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FWF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FWF 19.6xIndustry Avg. 13.4xNo. of Companies17PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FWF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FWF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FWF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.6x
Fair PE Ratio19.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FWF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FWF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€21.20
€22.73
+7.2%
11.0%€28.41€18.94n/a8
Nov ’25€20.40
€21.78
+6.8%
11.2%€26.94€17.96n/a8
Oct ’25€20.60
€21.78
+5.7%
11.2%€26.94€17.96n/a8
Sep ’25€20.60
€21.83
+6.0%
11.2%€27.01€18.01n/a8
Aug ’25€20.80
€22.01
+5.8%
11.7%€27.66€18.44n/a8
Jul ’25€20.60
€22.76
+10.5%
10.1%€27.62€20.26n/a7
Jun ’25€21.00
€22.76
+8.4%
10.1%€27.62€20.26n/a7
May ’25€23.20
€22.30
-3.9%
10.1%€27.68€20.30n/a8
Apr ’25€21.80
€22.20
+1.9%
10.7%€27.76€20.35n/a7
Mar ’25€20.60
€22.20
+7.8%
10.7%€27.76€20.35n/a7
Feb ’25€21.00
€21.98
+4.7%
11.5%€27.47€20.15n/a6
Jan ’25€20.20
€22.27
+10.2%
12.0%€28.03€20.56n/a6
Dec ’24€19.10
€22.27
+16.6%
12.0%€28.03€20.56n/a6
Nov ’24€20.80
€24.70
+18.7%
11.9%€30.95€21.57€20.406
Oct ’24€21.00
€24.70
+17.6%
11.7%€30.76€21.44€20.606
Sep ’24€21.60
€24.80
+14.8%
10.4%€30.51€23.11€20.606
Aug ’24€22.40
€24.93
+11.3%
11.5%€30.10€21.89€20.806
Jul ’24€22.80
€24.93
+9.4%
11.5%€30.10€21.89€20.606
Jun ’24€23.40
€25.74
+10.0%
10.9%€30.52€22.19€21.006
May ’24€25.20
€26.30
+4.4%
7.6%€30.11€23.72€23.206
Apr ’24€24.80
€27.21
+9.7%
7.3%€30.78€24.25€21.806
Mar ’24€26.20
€27.51
+5.0%
6.4%€30.95€25.32€20.606
Feb ’24€25.40
€28.01
+10.3%
6.4%€31.52€25.79€21.006
Jan ’24€27.00
€28.01
+3.8%
6.4%€31.52€25.79€20.206
Dec ’23€28.60
€28.38
-0.8%
6.4%€31.93€26.12€19.106
Nov ’23€29.00
€29.69
+2.4%
6.7%€33.60€27.49€20.806

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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