Hilton Food Group plc

DB:FAG Stock Report

Market Cap: €976.6m

Hilton Food Group Valuation

Is FAG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FAG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FAG (€11) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€5.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FAG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FAG?

Key metric: As FAG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FAG. This is calculated by dividing FAG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FAG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.5x
EarningsUK£46.43m
Market CapUK£812.70m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FAG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FAG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.9x
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
14.8xn/a€625.2m
NLM FRoSTA
11.9xn/a€415.6m
SZU Südzucker
6.8x-10.2%€2.3b
SMB Schwälbchen Molkerei Jakob Berz
6.2xn/a€51.9m
FAG Hilton Food Group
17.5x10.5%€812.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FAG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the peer average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FAG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FAG 17.5xIndustry Avg. 13.2xNo. of Companies17PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FAG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FAG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FAG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.5x
Fair PE Ratio18.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FAG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€11.00
€12.88
+17.1%
7.3%€14.31€11.39n/a6
Nov ’25€10.60
€12.95
+22.2%
7.3%€14.39€11.45n/a6
Oct ’25€10.70
€12.67
+18.4%
7.0%€14.23€11.33n/a6
Sep ’25€11.50
€12.30
+7.0%
7.5%€14.01€11.15n/a6
Aug ’25€11.00
€12.40
+12.8%
7.5%€14.13€11.25n/a6
Jul ’25€10.50
€12.40
+18.1%
7.5%€14.13€11.25n/a6
Jun ’25€10.60
€12.38
+16.8%
7.5%€14.10€11.22n/a6
May ’25€10.60
€11.97
+12.9%
12.8%€14.05€9.01n/a6
Apr ’25€9.83
€10.87
+10.6%
16.5%€13.40€8.16n/a6
Mar ’25€9.35
€10.64
+13.8%
16.5%€13.37€8.14n/a6
Feb ’25€9.06
€10.64
+17.5%
16.5%€13.37€8.14n/a6
Jan ’25€9.00
€10.56
+17.3%
15.3%€12.82€8.16n/a6
Dec ’24€8.19
€10.27
+25.4%
14.9%€12.68€8.07n/a7
Nov ’24€7.42
€10.27
+38.4%
14.9%€12.68€8.07€10.607
Oct ’24€8.12
€10.26
+26.4%
13.9%€12.20€8.13€10.707
Sep ’24€7.74
€10.27
+32.7%
15.2%€12.30€8.20€11.506
Aug ’24€7.42
€10.46
+40.9%
14.2%€12.13€8.09€11.005
Jul ’24€7.13
€10.09
+41.5%
16.8%€12.22€7.86€10.506
Jun ’24€8.17
€9.51
+16.4%
20.5%€12.10€6.63€10.607
May ’24€7.50
€8.86
+18.2%
17.4%€11.73€6.55€10.607
Apr ’24€7.60
€8.46
+11.3%
19.1%€11.67€6.51€9.837
Mar ’24€8.05
€8.49
+5.5%
17.9%€11.63€6.49€9.358
Feb ’24€7.40
€8.49
+14.8%
17.9%€11.63€6.49€9.068
Jan ’24€6.25
€8.56
+37.0%
17.9%€11.73€6.55€9.008
Dec ’23€6.15
€8.76
+42.4%
17.9%€11.99€6.69€8.198
Nov ’23€7.05
€11.81
+67.5%
23.3%€16.22€8.00€7.428

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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