Danone S.A.

DB:BSN Stock Report

Market Cap: €41.6b

Danone Valuation

Is BSN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BSN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BSN (€64.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€99.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BSN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BSN?

Key metric: As BSN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BSN. This is calculated by dividing BSN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BSN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio41.5x
Earnings€1.00b
Market Cap€41.62b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BSN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BSN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.2x
SZU Südzucker
6.6x-10.2%€2.2b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
14.5xn/a€577.9m
NLM FRoSTA
12.2xn/a€415.6m
GIS General Mills
15.3x3.6%US$36.8b
BSN Danone
41.5x18.5%€41.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BSN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the peer average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BSN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BSN 41.5xIndustry Avg. 13.4xNo. of Companies18PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BSN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BSN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BSN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio41.5x
Fair PE Ratio28.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BSN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BSN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€64.50
€67.07
+4.0%
9.4%€80.00€55.00n/a22
Nov ’25€66.20
€66.61
+0.6%
8.5%€75.00€55.00n/a22
Oct ’25€65.20
€64.20
-1.5%
9.6%€72.00€55.00n/a22
Sep ’25€62.16
€63.97
+2.9%
9.2%€72.00€55.00n/a22
Aug ’25€59.62
€63.67
+6.8%
9.2%€72.00€55.00n/a22
Jul ’25€57.90
€63.40
+9.5%
9.3%€72.00€53.00n/a22
Jun ’25€59.20
€63.45
+7.2%
9.5%€72.00€53.00n/a22
May ’25€58.70
€63.22
+7.7%
10.2%€72.00€50.00n/a22
Apr ’25€59.78
€63.01
+5.4%
10.6%€72.00€50.00n/a22
Mar ’25€58.75
€62.58
+6.5%
11.1%€72.00€49.00n/a23
Feb ’25€61.50
€61.82
+0.5%
11.4%€72.00€49.00n/a23
Jan ’25€58.69
€59.24
+0.9%
12.6%€70.00€47.50n/a22
Dec ’24€58.64
€58.92
+0.5%
12.4%€70.00€47.50€64.5022
Nov ’24€57.53
€59.01
+2.6%
12.2%€70.00€47.50€66.2022
Oct ’24€51.48
€58.81
+14.2%
13.1%€70.00€43.00€65.2022
Sep ’24€54.07
€59.28
+9.6%
13.3%€71.00€43.00€62.1624
Aug ’24€55.44
€60.08
+8.4%
12.3%€71.00€43.00€59.6223
Jul ’24€55.41
€60.23
+8.7%
12.4%€70.00€43.00€57.9022
Jun ’24€55.39
€59.77
+7.9%
13.1%€70.00€43.00€59.2022
May ’24€59.81
€59.18
-1.1%
13.1%€70.00€43.00€58.7022
Apr ’24€57.35
€57.61
+0.4%
14.1%€70.00€43.00€59.7822
Mar ’24€53.48
€57.06
+6.7%
13.9%€70.00€43.00€58.7523
Feb ’24€50.69
€55.47
+9.4%
15.1%€70.00€41.00€61.5022
Jan ’24€49.70
€57.02
+14.7%
14.3%€70.00€41.00€58.6922
Dec ’23€50.63
€57.15
+12.9%
12.2%€70.00€41.00€58.6423

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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