Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

DB:ADM Stock Report

Market Cap: €24.4b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Valuation

Is ADM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADM (€51.16) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€21.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADM is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADM?

Key metric: As ADM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ADM. This is calculated by dividing ADM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ADM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.1x
EarningsUS$1.80b
Market CapUS$25.42b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ADM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ADM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.1x
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
9.9x-1.0%€2.0b
SZU Südzucker
6.8x-10.2%€2.3b
F34 Wilmar International
9.2x5.9%S$19.2b
BG Bunge Global
10.6x17.2%US$12.2b
ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland
14.1x3.1%€25.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ADM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the peer average (9.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ADM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ADM 14.1xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies17PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ADM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.1x
Fair PE Ratio21.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ADM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ADM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€51.16
€56.84
+11.1%
8.9%€63.38€48.98n/a10
Nov ’25€50.50
€57.29
+13.4%
4.2%€61.19€52.84n/a10
Oct ’25€53.58
€56.34
+5.1%
4.5%€60.53€51.49n/a12
Sep ’25€54.97
€56.81
+3.3%
4.5%€61.37€52.21n/a12
Aug ’25€57.79
€57.37
-0.7%
4.7%€61.87€52.64n/a11
Jul ’25€56.58
€58.12
+2.7%
5.1%€64.27€53.09n/a11
Jun ’25€55.45
€58.81
+6.1%
6.5%€68.98€53.14n/a15
May ’25€53.93
€59.64
+10.6%
7.5%€69.21€53.31n/a16
Apr ’25€58.20
€59.62
+2.4%
9.5%€69.41€52.75n/a14
Mar ’25€50.40
€62.28
+23.6%
17.9%€90.62€50.60n/a15
Feb ’25€52.00
€62.28
+19.8%
17.9%€90.62€50.60n/a15
Jan ’25€65.00
€82.08
+26.3%
14.1%€106.07€64.01n/a15
Dec ’24€69.20
€85.19
+23.1%
14.7%€108.39€65.41n/a15
Nov ’24€67.80
€85.87
+26.7%
14.5%€109.26€65.93€50.5015
Oct ’24€71.40
€92.24
+29.2%
12.7%€111.37€66.63€53.5815
Sep ’24€73.20
€88.87
+21.4%
12.7%€107.30€64.20€54.9715
Aug ’24€77.20
€88.18
+14.2%
12.8%€106.40€63.66€57.7915
Jul ’24€68.40
€85.56
+25.1%
14.2%€106.51€63.72€56.5815
Jun ’24€65.80
€87.29
+32.7%
14.8%€108.74€65.06€55.4514
May ’24€70.60
€87.12
+23.4%
13.7%€106.14€63.50€53.9315
Apr ’24€73.19
€91.66
+25.2%
12.7%€107.86€64.53€58.2014
Mar ’24€74.65
€91.66
+22.8%
12.7%€107.86€64.53€50.4014
Feb ’24€75.81
€91.66
+20.9%
12.7%€107.86€64.53€52.0014
Jan ’24€87.04
€93.40
+7.3%
12.2%€110.31€66.00€65.0015
Dec ’23€87.69
€98.25
+12.0%
12.0%€117.39€70.23€69.2014
Nov ’23€98.17
€98.25
+0.08%
12.0%€117.39€70.23€67.8014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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