Post Holdings, Inc.

DB:2PO Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.5b

Post Holdings Valuation

Is 2PO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2PO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2PO (€111) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€576.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2PO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2PO?

Key metric: As 2PO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2PO. This is calculated by dividing 2PO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2PO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.5x
EarningsUS$366.70m
Market CapUS$6.77b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2PO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2PO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.2x
SZU Südzucker
6.8x-10.2%€2.3b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
15.8xn/a€630.5m
NLM FRoSTA
12.2xn/a€415.6m
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
9.9x-1.0%€2.0b
2PO Post Holdings
18.5x8.8%€6.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2PO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the peer average (11.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2PO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2PO 18.5xIndustry Avg. 13.4xNo. of Companies17PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2PO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2PO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2PO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.5x
Fair PE Ratio20.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2PO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2PO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€111.00
€118.40
+6.7%
7.2%€132.19€99.14n/a10
Nov ’25€101.00
€114.28
+13.1%
6.7%€127.99€95.99n/a10
Oct ’25€104.00
€112.26
+7.9%
6.7%€125.73€94.30n/a10
Sep ’25€104.00
€114.49
+10.1%
6.7%€128.13€96.10n/a10
Aug ’25€102.00
€112.03
+9.8%
8.2%€129.74€97.30n/a9
Jul ’25€96.00
€111.67
+16.3%
7.7%€130.40€97.80n/a10
Jun ’25€98.00
€110.87
+13.1%
7.9%€130.00€97.50n/a10
May ’25€99.00
€108.47
+9.6%
5.0%€120.46€98.82n/a11
Apr ’25€98.00
€106.21
+8.4%
5.5%€118.12€96.89n/a10
Mar ’25€95.50
€106.21
+11.2%
5.5%€118.12€96.89n/a10
Feb ’25€86.00
€95.01
+10.5%
7.5%€104.88€82.08n/a11
Jan ’25€79.50
€94.62
+19.0%
8.0%€105.34€82.44n/a10
Dec ’24€78.50
€95.75
+22.0%
7.1%€105.09€82.24n/a9
Nov ’24€75.50
€99.86
+32.3%
6.3%€109.37€85.59€101.009
Oct ’24€81.00
€99.94
+23.4%
6.4%€108.81€85.16€104.008
Sep ’24€82.00
€97.52
+18.9%
6.4%€106.31€83.20€104.008
Aug ’24€76.50
€93.07
+21.7%
8.5%€103.66€76.62€102.008
Jul ’24€79.00
€94.41
+19.5%
8.5%€104.90€77.54€96.008
Jun ’24€78.00
€94.86
+21.6%
8.1%€104.89€77.53€98.008
May ’24€82.00
€92.61
+12.9%
9.9%€104.82€77.48€99.005
Apr ’24€82.50
€96.84
+17.4%
9.9%€107.09€79.15€98.005
Mar ’24€84.00
€97.03
+15.5%
9.0%€107.12€79.18€95.506
Feb ’24€86.50
€91.80
+6.1%
12.7%€105.83€64.42€86.008
Jan ’24€84.50
€91.98
+8.9%
13.4%€108.49€66.04€79.5010
Dec ’23€89.00
€93.10
+4.6%
13.3%€109.25€66.50€78.5010
Nov ’23€92.00
€95.94
+4.3%
13.4%€109.91€71.90€75.5010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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