Philip Morris International Inc.

XTRA:4I1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €193.9b

Philip Morris International Valuation

Is 4I1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4I1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4I1 (€123.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€245.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4I1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4I1?

Key metric: As 4I1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4I1. This is calculated by dividing 4I1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4I1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.9x
EarningsUS$9.81b
Market CapUS$204.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4I1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4I1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.8x
MO Altria Group
9.3x-4.7%US$94.8b
ITC ITC
28.5x9.6%₹5.8t
2914 Japan Tobacco
15.4x5.6%JP¥7.4t
IMB Imperial Brands
9.9x0.8%UK£20.0b
4I1 Philip Morris International
20.9x9.4%€204.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4I1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the peer average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4I1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Tobacco Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4I1 20.9xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies8PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4I1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the Global Tobacco industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4I1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4I1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.9x
Fair PE Ratio27.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4I1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4I1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€123.08
€128.41
+4.3%
12.1%€146.35€96.31n/a13
Nov ’25€121.12
€123.51
+2.0%
12.5%€142.72€93.92n/a13
Oct ’25€109.92
€114.26
+3.9%
11.3%€130.99€92.15n/a13
Sep ’25€110.88
€107.78
-2.8%
9.1%€121.65€86.24n/a14
Aug ’25€107.72
€106.76
-0.9%
8.6%€123.64€87.66n/a14
Jul ’25€94.99
€103.53
+9.0%
8.3%€124.79€83.82n/a14
Jun ’25€92.69
€101.84
+9.9%
9.0%€124.71€80.04n/a15
May ’25€88.48
€102.25
+15.6%
8.8%€125.53€80.56n/a16
Apr ’25€85.25
€99.34
+16.5%
9.5%€123.33€78.23n/a15
Mar ’25€82.55
€98.98
+19.9%
10.4%€124.37€78.89n/a16
Feb ’25€85.00
€99.55
+17.1%
10.7%€123.44€78.76n/a16
Jan ’25€85.05
€99.42
+16.9%
9.1%€119.08€78.32n/a18
Dec ’24€85.80
€99.37
+15.8%
9.1%€118.48€77.92n/a18
Nov ’24€84.40
€103.25
+22.3%
8.6%€122.45€80.53€121.1217
Oct ’24€88.45
€107.39
+21.4%
7.7%€123.08€82.37€109.9217
Sep ’24€88.50
€104.24
+17.8%
8.2%€119.86€80.21€110.8818
Aug ’24€89.85
€101.73
+13.2%
8.2%€116.86€78.20€107.7218
Jul ’24€89.45
€103.45
+15.7%
8.2%€119.13€79.73€94.9918
Jun ’24€84.25
€102.76
+22.0%
8.0%€118.11€81.77€92.6918
May ’24€89.60
€102.48
+14.4%
7.9%€117.66€81.46€88.4818
Apr ’24€89.25
€104.41
+17.0%
8.2%€119.93€83.03€85.2517
Mar ’24€91.43
€104.95
+14.8%
8.6%€121.93€84.41€82.5519
Feb ’24€95.72
€98.09
+2.5%
10.0%€118.34€81.93€85.0019
Jan ’24€93.71
€98.86
+5.5%
10.2%€119.81€81.13€85.0518
Dec ’23€96.39
€99.36
+3.1%
9.5%€122.91€83.23€85.8017
Nov ’23€92.82
€102.72
+10.7%
10.2%€128.77€86.18€84.4017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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