Philip Morris International Inc.

XTRA:4I1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €186.9b

Philip Morris International Valuation

Is 4I1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4I1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4I1 (€119.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€230.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4I1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4I1?

Key metric: As 4I1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4I1. This is calculated by dividing 4I1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4I1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.8x
EarningsUS$9.81b
Market CapUS$193.65b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4I1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4I1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.1x
MO Altria Group
8.8x-4.2%US$90.2b
ITC ITC
28.3x9.6%₹5.8t
2914 Japan Tobacco
15.2x6.6%JP¥7.4t
IMB Imperial Brands
8.2x-4.8%UK£21.3b
4I1 Philip Morris International
19.8x9.4%€193.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4I1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the peer average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4I1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Tobacco Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4I1 19.8xIndustry Avg. 12.5xNo. of Companies9PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4I1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the Global Tobacco industry average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4I1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4I1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.8x
Fair PE Ratio27.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4I1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4I1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€119.22
€129.73
+8.8%
12.2%€147.68€97.19n/a13
Dec ’25€125.60
€125.04
-0.4%
12.1%€142.51€93.78n/a13
Nov ’25€121.12
€123.51
+2.0%
12.5%€142.72€93.92n/a13
Oct ’25€109.92
€114.26
+3.9%
11.3%€130.99€92.15n/a13
Sep ’25€110.88
€107.78
-2.8%
9.1%€121.65€86.24n/a14
Aug ’25€107.72
€106.76
-0.9%
8.6%€123.64€87.66n/a14
Jul ’25€94.99
€103.53
+9.0%
8.3%€124.79€83.82n/a14
Jun ’25€92.69
€101.84
+9.9%
9.0%€124.71€80.04n/a15
May ’25€88.48
€102.25
+15.6%
8.8%€125.53€80.56n/a16
Apr ’25€85.25
€99.34
+16.5%
9.5%€123.33€78.23n/a15
Mar ’25€82.55
€98.98
+19.9%
10.4%€124.37€78.89n/a16
Feb ’25€85.00
€99.55
+17.1%
10.7%€123.44€78.76n/a16
Jan ’25€85.05
€99.42
+16.9%
9.1%€119.08€78.32n/a18
Dec ’24€85.80
€99.37
+15.8%
9.1%€118.48€77.92€125.6018
Nov ’24€84.40
€103.25
+22.3%
8.6%€122.45€80.53€121.1217
Oct ’24€88.45
€107.39
+21.4%
7.7%€123.08€82.37€109.9217
Sep ’24€88.50
€104.24
+17.8%
8.2%€119.86€80.21€110.8818
Aug ’24€89.85
€101.73
+13.2%
8.2%€116.86€78.20€107.7218
Jul ’24€89.45
€103.45
+15.7%
8.2%€119.13€79.73€94.9918
Jun ’24€84.25
€102.76
+22.0%
8.0%€118.11€81.77€92.6918
May ’24€89.60
€102.48
+14.4%
7.9%€117.66€81.46€88.4818
Apr ’24€89.25
€104.41
+17.0%
8.2%€119.93€83.03€85.2517
Mar ’24€91.43
€104.95
+14.8%
8.6%€121.93€84.41€82.5519
Feb ’24€95.72
€98.09
+2.5%
10.0%€118.34€81.93€85.0019
Jan ’24€93.71
€98.86
+5.5%
10.2%€119.81€81.13€85.0518
Dec ’23€96.39
€99.36
+3.1%
9.5%€122.91€83.23€85.8017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 16:09
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Philip Morris International Inc. is covered by 41 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Michael BrancaBarclays