Whitehaven Coal Limited

DB:WC2 Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.5b

Whitehaven Coal Valuation

Is WC2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WC2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WC2 (€4.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€12.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WC2 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WC2?

Key metric: As WC2 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for WC2. This is calculated by dividing WC2's market cap by their current earnings.
What is WC2's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.2x
EarningsAU$355.00m
Market CapAU$5.75b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WC2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WC2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.7x
ETG EnviTec Biogas
9xn/a€447.0m
CE2 CropEnergies
15.3x-7.5%€1.0b
CE2 CropEnergies
82.4xn/a€1.2b
VH2 Friedrich Vorwerk Group
20.1x12.9%€564.0m
WC2 Whitehaven Coal
16.2x17.8%€5.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WC2 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the peer average (31.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WC2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WC2 16.2xIndustry Avg. 8.3xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WC2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WC2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WC2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.2x
Fair PE Ratio23.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WC2 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WC2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€4.16
€5.39
+29.5%
7.0%€5.93€4.76n/a15
Nov ’25€4.10
€5.32
+29.7%
7.0%€5.85€4.70n/a15
Oct ’25€4.43
€5.41
+22.0%
10.3%€6.22€4.23n/a15
Sep ’25€4.06
€5.39
+32.8%
11.1%€6.28€4.13n/a14
Aug ’25€4.63
€5.67
+22.4%
9.9%€6.58€4.71n/a14
Jul ’25€4.96
€5.66
+14.1%
11.5%€7.08€4.60n/a14
Jun ’25€5.00
€5.47
+9.5%
10.7%€7.00€4.55n/a14
May ’25€4.61
€5.34
+15.9%
11.0%€6.87€4.46n/a13
Apr ’25€4.26
€4.95
+16.1%
17.0%€6.89€3.63n/a12
Mar ’25€4.19
€4.91
+17.1%
16.9%€6.83€3.60n/a12
Feb ’25€5.00
€5.10
+2.0%
16.6%€6.90€3.75n/a12
Jan ’25€4.67
€5.09
+8.9%
19.0%€7.34€3.85n/a12
Dec ’24€4.36
€5.00
+14.7%
18.8%€7.28€3.82n/a12
Nov ’24€4.42
€4.85
+9.7%
13.4%€6.01€3.78€4.1012
Oct ’24€4.34
€4.32
-0.5%
16.0%€5.93€3.15€4.4313
Sep ’24€3.79
€4.33
+14.4%
13.6%€5.64€3.56€4.0613
Aug ’24€4.18
€4.83
+15.7%
11.9%€5.84€3.65€4.6313
Jul ’24€4.14
€4.94
+19.4%
10.8%€5.98€4.12€4.9614
Jun ’24€3.48
€5.14
+47.7%
10.1%€5.96€4.26€5.0013
May ’24€4.25
€5.24
+23.3%
10.4%€6.06€4.24€4.6113
Apr ’24€4.10
€5.99
+46.2%
10.2%€6.93€5.02€4.2614
Mar ’24€4.52
€6.46
+42.8%
10.8%€7.72€5.24€4.1914
Feb ’24€5.30
€7.53
+42.1%
11.6%€9.71€6.34€5.0015
Jan ’24€5.95
€7.20
+20.9%
13.2%€9.46€5.68€4.6715
Dec ’23€6.42
€7.23
+12.7%
15.4%€9.72€5.18€4.3615
Nov ’23€5.92
€7.42
+25.3%
15.2%€9.72€5.51€4.4215

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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