Orlen S.A.

DB:PKY1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €12.8b

Orlen Valuation

Is PKY1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PKY1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PKY1 (€11.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€56.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PKY1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKY1?

Key metric: As PKY1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PKY1. This is calculated by dividing PKY1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PKY1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.5x
Earningszł3.75b
Market Capzł54.41b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PKY1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PKY1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.9x
CE2 CropEnergies
15.3x-7.5%€1.0b
CE2 CropEnergies
82.4xn/a€1.2b
5020 ENEOS Holdings
12.2x12.4%JP¥2.3t
BPCL Bharat Petroleum
9.6x4.2%₹1.3t
PKY1 Orlen
14.5x17.5%€54.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKY1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the peer average (29.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PKY1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKY1 14.5xIndustry Avg. 8.3xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKY1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PKY1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PKY1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.5x
Fair PE Ratio27x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PKY1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PKY1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€11.13
€17.17
+54.2%
15.6%€22.04€14.41n/a10
Dec ’25€12.06
€17.55
+45.5%
18.3%€24.53€14.32n/a10
Nov ’25€12.11
€17.45
+44.1%
17.7%€24.25€14.15n/a10
Oct ’25€12.93
€18.55
+43.4%
14.8%€24.62€15.40n/a10
Sep ’25€14.63
€18.30
+25.1%
11.8%€22.16€15.41n/a10
Aug ’25€14.94
€18.30
+22.5%
11.8%€22.16€15.41n/a10
Jul ’25€15.90
€18.31
+15.2%
12.0%€21.97€15.28n/a9
Jun ’25€15.07
€18.51
+22.8%
12.0%€22.21€15.45n/a9
May ’25€15.40
€18.67
+21.2%
11.0%€21.99€16.59n/a8
Apr ’25€15.01
€18.67
+24.3%
11.0%€21.99€16.59n/a8
Mar ’25€14.48
€18.34
+26.7%
13.0%€22.08€15.66n/a8
Feb ’25€15.30
€18.34
+19.9%
13.0%€22.08€15.66n/a8
Jan ’25€15.30
€18.43
+20.5%
17.7%€24.26€14.79n/a8
Dec ’24€13.86
€18.55
+33.8%
17.5%€24.30€14.81€12.068
Nov ’24€14.93
€18.05
+20.9%
18.0%€23.45€14.29€12.119
Oct ’24€12.86
€16.45
+27.9%
15.8%€20.73€13.02€12.939
Sep ’24€14.36
€17.26
+20.2%
15.0%€21.37€13.43€14.639
Aug ’24€16.10
€17.65
+9.6%
15.6%€22.44€13.67€14.949
Jul ’24€14.47
€17.61
+21.7%
13.8%€22.54€13.75€15.9010
Jun ’24€13.34
€17.08
+28.1%
13.3%€22.07€13.46€15.0711
May ’24€13.90
€16.75
+20.5%
14.2%€21.75€12.40€15.4011
Apr ’24€12.34
€16.38
+32.8%
14.9%€21.38€12.19€15.0111
Mar ’24€14.18
€17.07
+20.4%
14.0%€21.20€12.72€14.4810
Feb ’24€13.68
€17.07
+24.8%
14.0%€21.20€12.72€15.3010
Jan ’24€13.55
€17.86
+31.9%
11.2%€21.34€14.30€15.309
Dec ’23€14.54
€17.75
+22.1%
14.8%€21.31€13.21€13.869

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 15:50
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Orlen S.A. is covered by 25 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Robert BateBarclays
Yuriy KukhtanychBerenberg
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku