Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A.

DB:GZ5 Stock Report

Market Cap: €12.3b

Galp Energia SGPS Valuation

Is GZ5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GZ5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GZ5 (€15.75) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€11.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GZ5 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GZ5?

Key metric: As GZ5 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GZ5. This is calculated by dividing GZ5's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GZ5's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.2x
Earnings€1.34b
Market Cap€12.29b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GZ5's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GZ5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.8x
CE2 CropEnergies
82.4xn/a€1.2b
REP Repsol
6.5x4.2%€14.0b
OMV OMV
9.6x16.8%€12.7b
SNP OMV Petrom
8.5x3.0%RON 45.8b
GZ5 Galp Energia SGPS
9.2x-11.2%€12.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GZ5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the peer average (26.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GZ5's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GZ5 9.2xIndustry Avg. 9.2xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GZ5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (9.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GZ5's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GZ5 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.2x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GZ5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GZ5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€15.75
€20.62
+30.9%
11.9%€26.00€15.50n/a20
Nov ’25€15.59
€20.69
+32.7%
12.3%€27.00€16.50n/a19
Oct ’25€16.72
€21.65
+29.5%
12.7%€27.00€17.50n/a18
Sep ’25€18.89
€22.18
+17.4%
12.3%€28.00€17.50n/a18
Aug ’25€19.40
€22.23
+14.6%
11.9%€28.00€18.40n/a18
Jul ’25€20.23
€21.73
+7.4%
14.2%€28.00€14.00n/a18
Jun ’25€19.24
€21.68
+12.7%
14.2%€28.00€14.00n/a18
May ’25€20.22
€20.04
-0.9%
16.6%€25.00€14.00n/a18
Apr ’25€15.12
€15.34
+1.5%
13.6%€18.00€9.00n/a18
Mar ’25€14.61
€15.33
+4.9%
13.0%€18.00€9.00n/a19
Feb ’25€14.49
€15.02
+3.7%
14.7%€18.00€9.00n/a19
Jan ’25€13.31
€14.48
+8.9%
14.3%€19.00€9.00n/a19
Dec ’24€13.68
€14.54
+6.3%
14.3%€19.00€9.00n/a19
Nov ’24€14.18
€14.56
+2.7%
14.9%€19.00€9.00€15.5919
Oct ’24€13.96
€13.98
+0.2%
16.2%€19.00€9.00€16.7219
Sep ’24€12.69
€13.61
+7.3%
16.4%€19.00€9.00€18.8919
Aug ’24€12.05
€13.63
+13.1%
14.7%€18.00€10.00€19.4019
Jul ’24€10.58
€13.33
+26.0%
15.6%€18.00€10.00€20.2319
Jun ’24€9.88
€13.43
+35.9%
15.8%€18.00€10.00€19.2419
May ’24€10.72
€13.55
+26.4%
16.2%€19.00€10.30€20.2220
Apr ’24€10.51
€13.81
+31.4%
15.4%€19.00€10.60€15.1220
Mar ’24€11.49
€14.05
+22.2%
15.2%€19.00€10.00€14.6120
Feb ’24€12.47
€14.30
+14.7%
14.9%€19.00€10.00€14.4920
Jan ’24€12.58
€14.01
+11.4%
14.5%€17.00€10.00€13.3120
Dec ’23€11.81
€13.98
+18.4%
15.0%€18.00€10.00€13.6820
Nov ’23€10.26
€13.75
+34.0%
15.1%€18.00€10.00€14.1821

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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