Cenovus Energy Valuation

Is CXD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CXD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CXD (€15.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€36.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CXD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CXD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CXD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.4x
PEG Ratio-6.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CXD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CXD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.6x
PTT PTT
7.4x-6.6%฿956.9b
SIBN Gazprom Neft
3.7xn/a₽1.8t
IMO Imperial Oil
10.3x-7.2%CA$52.8b
SU Suncor Energy
9x-11.4%CA$66.1b
CXD Cenovus Energy
9.4x-1.4%€42.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CXD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CXD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CXD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CXD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CXD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.4x
Fair PE Ratio24.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CXD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CXD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€15.46
€22.02
+42.4%
6.6%€25.44€19.42n/a18
Sep ’25€16.98
€22.55
+32.8%
6.0%€25.12€19.83n/a18
Aug ’25€18.46
€22.67
+22.8%
5.7%€25.38€20.04n/a18
Jul ’25€18.18
€22.99
+26.5%
7.0%€25.97€20.50n/a18
Jun ’25€18.82
€22.66
+20.4%
7.4%€25.63€20.23n/a18
May ’25€20.02
€22.76
+13.7%
7.6%€25.83€20.39n/a18
Apr ’25€18.27
€21.20
+16.0%
9.0%€26.01€18.48n/a18
Mar ’25€16.00
€20.65
+29.1%
8.7%€23.95€18.48n/a17
Feb ’25€14.89
€20.79
+39.6%
8.2%€24.09€18.59n/a17
Jan ’25€14.99
€21.90
+46.1%
6.9%€24.64€19.16n/a17
Dec ’24€16.23
€22.42
+38.2%
6.5%€25.48€20.12n/a17
Nov ’24€17.95
€22.50
+25.3%
8.7%€25.38€18.18n/a17
Oct ’24€19.74
€21.90
+10.9%
9.2%€25.26€18.60€14.8717
Sep ’24€18.25
€20.66
+13.2%
8.3%€24.55€18.07€16.9817
Aug ’24€16.94
€20.35
+20.1%
7.6%€23.45€18.28€18.4617
Jul ’24€15.24
€20.60
+35.1%
8.4%€23.62€17.71€18.1816
Jun ’24€14.94
€20.76
+39.0%
11.3%€26.05€17.48€18.8216
May ’24€14.52
€20.63
+42.0%
10.9%€25.36€17.02€20.0217
Apr ’24€15.73
€21.97
+39.6%
8.9%€26.46€18.66€18.2717
Mar ’24€17.34
€22.59
+30.3%
8.5%€27.01€19.05€16.0017
Feb ’24€18.01
€22.56
+25.3%
10.7%€26.80€15.81€14.8918
Jan ’24€18.00
€22.89
+27.2%
8.4%€26.18€17.91€14.9918
Dec ’23€18.79
€24.24
+29.0%
7.5%€27.57€20.32€16.2317
Nov ’23€20.75
€24.69
+19.0%
7.7%€28.23€20.80€17.9517
Oct ’23€15.68
€24.41
+55.7%
8.3%€28.08€20.69€19.7416

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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