Occidental Petroleum Corporation

XTRA:OPC Stock Report

Market Cap: €46.8b

Occidental Petroleum Valuation

Is OPC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OPC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OPC (€50.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€88.85)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OPC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OPC?

Key metric: As OPC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OPC. This is calculated by dividing OPC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OPC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.8x
EarningsUS$3.53b
Market CapUS$48.73b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OPC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OPC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.3x
ENI Eni
17.8x17.3%€43.7b
LKOH PJSC LUKOIL
3.3xn/a₽2.5t
SU Suncor Energy
9.1x-12.5%CA$73.0b
EQNR Equinor
7.2x-8.1%NOK 746.4b
OPC Occidental Petroleum
13.8x8.5%€48.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OPC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OPC 13.8xIndustry Avg. 9.2xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (9.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OPC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OPC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.8x
Fair PE Ratio25.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OPC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€50.04
€60.10
+20.1%
13.5%€84.91€51.52n/a27
Nov ’25€46.05
€59.39
+29.0%
13.3%€82.30€49.93n/a27
Oct ’25€48.12
€60.96
+26.7%
13.4%€79.93€47.60n/a25
Sep ’25€51.25
€64.28
+25.4%
11.0%€80.07€52.18n/a25
Aug ’25€55.52
€65.94
+18.8%
10.1%€78.53€48.97n/a24
Jul ’25€58.68
€67.01
+14.2%
10.6%€84.17€49.57n/a23
Jun ’25€56.93
€66.00
+15.9%
10.6%€82.95€48.85n/a23
May ’25€63.70
€67.16
+5.4%
10.8%€84.49€53.51n/a24
Apr ’25€60.25
€61.39
+1.9%
7.9%€71.38€52.84n/a22
Mar ’25€56.50
€60.73
+7.5%
9.2%€73.93€51.75n/a22
Feb ’25€53.35
€61.90
+16.0%
10.9%€78.30€54.35n/a22
Jan ’25€54.45
€62.90
+15.5%
10.1%€77.86€54.04n/a23
Dec ’24€54.85
€64.03
+16.7%
9.5%€77.47€54.68n/a24
Nov ’24€58.95
€66.61
+13.0%
9.8%€80.51€56.83€46.0525
Oct ’24€61.95
€65.60
+5.9%
9.7%€80.91€56.16€48.1225
Sep ’24€59.50
€62.21
+4.6%
9.0%€73.74€52.54€51.2524
Aug ’24€56.95
€60.04
+5.4%
9.3%€73.22€50.62€55.5224
Jul ’24€54.15
€62.32
+15.1%
11.0%€75.14€49.49€58.6824
Jun ’24€54.55
€64.52
+18.3%
12.7%€81.41€50.53€56.9324
May ’24€56.10
€64.19
+14.4%
14.1%€84.21€47.99€63.7026
Apr ’24€57.65
€65.28
+13.2%
13.7%€85.74€48.86€60.2526
Mar ’24€55.55
€68.54
+23.4%
12.6%€87.22€53.46€56.5026
Feb ’24€58.40
€68.06
+16.5%
13.5%€91.03€51.89€53.3526
Jan ’24€58.10
€71.53
+23.1%
13.3%€94.26€53.73€54.4526
Dec ’23€66.40
€73.66
+10.9%
13.9%€96.14€54.80€54.8526
Nov ’23€75.45
€74.50
-1.3%
19.5%€110.39€44.15€58.9526

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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