CME Group Inc.

DB:MX4A Stock Report

Market Cap: €81.1b

CME Group Valuation

Is MX4A undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MX4A when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MX4A (€224.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€238.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MX4A is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MX4A?

Key metric: As MX4A is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MX4A. This is calculated by dividing MX4A's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MX4A's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25x
EarningsUS$3.42b
Market CapUS$85.52b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MX4A's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MX4A vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.1x
DB1 Deutsche Börse
21.7x5.4%€40.1b
DBK Deutsche Bank
7.7x13.4%€30.0b
ICE Intercontinental Exchange
38.1x11.4%US$92.1b
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
13x12.7%€7.8b
MX4A CME Group
25x3.1%€85.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MX4A is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the peer average (20.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MX4A's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/aUS$411.59m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.7x-18.2%US$208.06m
VG8 Varengold Bank
1.9xn/aUS$25.70m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.79m
No more companies available in this PE range
MX4A 25.0xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MX4A is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (20.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MX4A's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MX4A PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25x
Fair PE Ratio19.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MX4A is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MX4A forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€224.30
€223.37
-0.4%
9.0%€260.29€171.32n/a16
Nov ’25€204.75
€217.55
+6.2%
9.3%€254.24€167.33n/a16
Oct ’25€197.28
€195.79
-0.8%
8.9%€224.53€158.96n/a16
Sep ’25€194.42
€195.23
+0.4%
8.0%€223.38€170.66n/a14
Aug ’25€181.72
€200.78
+10.5%
8.3%€230.25€175.91n/a14
Jul ’25€182.74
€208.42
+14.1%
9.5%€232.83€174.15n/a15
Jun ’25€189.04
€209.71
+10.9%
8.1%€232.05€173.57n/a15
May ’25€196.20
€210.93
+7.5%
8.0%€233.05€174.32n/a15
Apr ’25€199.18
€210.03
+5.4%
8.9%€232.75€172.24n/a15
Mar ’25€202.25
€209.44
+3.6%
8.8%€232.03€171.70n/a15
Feb ’25€188.60
€202.56
+7.4%
9.5%€228.25€164.34n/a15
Jan ’25€190.02
€205.32
+8.1%
8.4%€225.13€162.09n/a15
Dec ’24€202.10
€212.61
+5.2%
8.5%€233.60€168.19n/a15
Nov ’24€197.76
€215.19
+8.8%
8.5%€236.58€170.33€204.7515
Oct ’24€188.90
€198.79
+5.2%
8.6%€233.05€161.27€197.2814
Sep ’24€187.98
€193.60
+3.0%
10.4%€229.93€153.59€194.4214
Aug ’24€181.68
€194.61
+7.1%
10.8%€231.60€152.27€181.7216
Jul ’24€169.94
€189.16
+11.3%
11.0%€229.05€146.59€182.7415
Jun ’24€166.86
€190.72
+14.3%
11.5%€232.10€148.54€189.0414
May ’24€167.58
€186.75
+11.4%
11.4%€226.80€145.15€196.2014
Apr ’24€175.82
€189.68
+7.9%
11.0%€230.48€147.50€199.1816
Mar ’24€172.48
€190.86
+10.7%
11.3%€232.75€148.96€202.2516
Feb ’24€160.24
€185.41
+15.7%
11.7%€230.08€146.33€188.6016
Jan ’24€154.70
€194.49
+25.7%
10.8%€234.28€150.87€190.0217
Dec ’23€167.98
€203.18
+21.0%
11.9%€262.04€156.25€202.1017
Nov ’23€173.74
€210.46
+21.1%
12.0%€270.97€161.58€197.7617

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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