Aiful (DB:AAU) - Share price, News & Analysis

AAU fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

AAU Stock Overview

Aiful Corporation engages in consumer finance and credit guarantee business in Japan.

Rewards

PE ratio (9x) is below the German market (17.4x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 23.66% per year

Earnings grew by 252% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Aiful Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Aiful
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥2.68
52 Week High	JP¥3.06
52 Week Low	JP¥2.22
Beta	0.40
1 Month Change	3.88%
3 Month Change	5.51%
1 Year Change	17.54%
3 Year Change	48.72%
5 Year Change	2.96%
Change since IPO	-88.69%

Shareholder Returns

	AAU	DE Consumer Finance	DE Market
7D	0%	-18.1%	-4.3%
1Y	17.5%	-34.4%	-13.7%

Return vs Industry: AAU exceeded the German Consumer Finance industry which returned -31.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AAU exceeded the German Market which returned -16.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AAU's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AAU volatility
AAU Average Weekly Movement	4.0%
Consumer Finance Industry Average Movement	6.6%
Market Average Movement	6.4%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.5%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	3.6%

Stable Share Price: AAU is less volatile than 75% of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AAU's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1967	2,135	Mitsuhide Fukuda	https://www.ir-aiful.com

Aiful Corporation engages in consumer finance and credit guarantee business in Japan. It offers unsecured, secured, and small business loans; and credit card, prepaid card, credit guarantee, debt collection, venture capital, receiving agent, corporate turnaround and restructuring, warehouse, document management, and leasing services, as well as used car and medical loans. The company also provides postpay settlement, factoring, and installment credit sales services.

Aiful Fundamentals Summary

How do Aiful's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AAU fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥183.32b
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥20.43b
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥130.11b

9.0x

P/E Ratio

1.4x

P/S Ratio

Is AAU overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AAU income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥130.11b
Cost of Revenue	JP¥7.77b
Gross Profit	JP¥122.35b
Other Expenses	JP¥101.91b
Earnings	JP¥20.43b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

May 11, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	42.24
Gross Margin	94.03%
Net Profit Margin	15.71%
Debt/Equity Ratio	299.4%

How did AAU perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.3%

Current Dividend Yield

2%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Aiful undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

8.97x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AAU (€2.68) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€1.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAU is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AAU is good value based on its PE Ratio (9x) compared to the European Consumer Finance industry average (11.1x).

PE vs Market: AAU is good value based on its PE Ratio (9x) compared to the German market (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AAU is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.4x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AAU is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the XE Consumer Finance industry average (1x).

Future Growth

How is Aiful forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

23.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AAU's forecast earnings growth (23.7% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.05%).

Earnings vs Market: AAU's earnings (23.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the German market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AAU's revenue (5.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (5.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AAU's revenue (5.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AAU's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.3%).

Past Performance

How has Aiful performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

22.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AAU has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AAU's current net profit margins (15.7%) are higher than last year (4.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AAU's earnings have grown significantly by 22.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AAU's earnings growth over the past year (252%) exceeds its 5-year average (22.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: AAU earnings growth over the past year (252%) exceeded the Consumer Finance industry 17.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: AAU's Return on Equity (12.4%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Aiful's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AAU's short term assets (¥874.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥547.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: AAU's short term assets (¥874.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥219.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AAU's net debt to equity ratio (264.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AAU's debt to equity ratio has increased from 269% to 299.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AAU's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: AAU earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Aiful current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.26%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AAU's dividend (0.26%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.39%).

High Dividend: AAU's dividend (0.26%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (4.31%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AAU is not paying a notable dividend for the German market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: AAU is not paying a notable dividend for the German market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: AAU is not paying a notable dividend for the German market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: AAU is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Diversified Financials industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mitsuhide Fukuda (41 yo)

1.92yrs

Tenure

Mr. Mitsuhide Fukuda serves as the President & Chief Executive Officer of AIFUL Corporation since June 23, 2020. He had been Senior General Manager of the Credit Management Division at AIFUL Corp. since Ap...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AAU's management team is considered experienced (2.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AAU's board of directors are considered experienced (6.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/10 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/03/31