Upstart Holdings, Inc.

DB:855 Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.0b

Upstart Holdings Valuation

Is 855 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 855 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 855 (€65.43) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€5.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 855 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 855?

Key metric: As 855 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 855. This is calculated by dividing 855's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 855's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio10.3x
SalesUS$604.94m
Market CapUS$6.25b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 855's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 855 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.5x
OT8 Eleving Group
1.1x6.4%€197.9m
E4I Multitude
0.9x18.6%€103.6m
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
2x-4.3%€7.9b
T2G Tradegate Wertpapierhandelsbank
18.1xn/a€2.2b
855 Upstart Holdings
10.3x21.2%€6.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 855 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.3x) compared to the peer average (5.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 855's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Finance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
855 10.3xIndustry Avg. 1.5xNo. of Companies7PS01.22.43.64.86+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 855 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.3x) compared to the European Consumer Finance industry average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 855's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

855 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio10.3x
Fair PS Ratio4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 855 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 855 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€65.43
€58.60
-10.4%
50.9%€95.28€11.43n/a13
Dec ’25€72.79
€49.98
-31.3%
55.1%€85.75€11.43n/a12
Nov ’25€45.00
€28.31
-37.1%
47.4%€51.78€8.32n/a13
Oct ’25€34.45
€22.50
-34.7%
47.8%€43.20€8.10n/a13
Sep ’25€38.05
€20.89
-45.1%
43.5%€33.06€8.04n/a13
Aug ’25€25.45
€18.44
-27.6%
38.1%€28.63€8.31n/a14
Jul ’25€21.14
€17.41
-17.6%
36.8%€27.55€8.26n/a14
Jun ’25€22.36
€17.74
-20.6%
36.3%€27.85€8.35n/a13
May ’25€20.84
€19.01
-8.7%
34.4%€27.68€8.30n/a14
Apr ’25€25.32
€19.12
-24.5%
34.4%€27.63€8.29n/a14
Mar ’25€23.13
€19.32
-16.5%
34.4%€27.68€8.31n/a14
Feb ’25€28.65
€19.78
-31.0%
45.7%€38.69€5.53n/a15
Jan ’25€39.29
€18.21
-53.6%
49.7%€38.53€5.50n/a13
Dec ’24€28.56
€17.60
-38.4%
42.3%€29.40€5.51€72.7914
Nov ’24€23.68
€22.49
-5.0%
60.2%€60.46€5.67€45.0015
Oct ’24€26.98
€22.78
-15.6%
60.2%€60.56€5.68€34.4515
Sep ’24€29.31
€22.89
-21.9%
64.3%€58.60€5.49€38.0514
Aug ’24€63.58
€20.60
-67.6%
88.8%€64.90€5.41€25.4514
Jul ’24€33.30
€15.15
-54.5%
59.0%€38.64€5.52€21.1413
Jun ’24€27.90
€11.75
-57.9%
26.1%€15.79€5.57€22.3613
May ’24€12.79
€10.75
-16.0%
28.0%€15.58€5.50€20.8413
Apr ’24€14.58
€10.95
-24.9%
28.9%€15.78€5.57€25.3212
Mar ’24€16.80
€12.51
-25.6%
32.6%€22.44€5.61€23.1312
Feb ’24€18.45
€13.24
-28.2%
27.5%€21.85€7.28€28.6512
Jan ’24€11.90
€15.47
+30.0%
38.8%€31.33€9.49€39.2912
Dec ’23€17.90
€15.49
-13.5%
39.7%€31.69€9.60€28.5612

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 11:47
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Ramsey El-AssalBarclays
Nathaniel SchindlerBofA Global Research