Ellington Credit Company

DB:73Z Stock Report

Market Cap: €187.0m

Ellington Credit Valuation

Is 73Z undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 73Z when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 73Z (€6.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€0.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 73Z is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 73Z?

Key metric: As 73Z is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 73Z. This is calculated by dividing 73Z's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 73Z's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.3x
EarningsUS$21.03m
Market CapUS$194.69m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 73Z's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 73Z vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
BBHK Deutsche Balaton
5.9xn/a€175.4m
MPCK MPC Münchmeyer Petersen Capital
11.8x5.4%€197.4m
QB7 Quirin Privatbank
20.3xn/a€164.1m
DBAN Deutsche Beteiligungs
24.4x54.1%€420.9m
73Z Ellington Credit
9.3x28.8%€194.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 73Z is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 73Z's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/aUS$406.78m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.8x-18.2%US$206.28m
VG8 Varengold Bank
1.8xn/aUS$24.05m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.68m
No more companies available in this PE range
73Z 9.3xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 73Z is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (20.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 73Z's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

73Z PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.3x
Fair PE Ratio14.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 73Z is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 73Z forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€6.30
€6.84
+8.6%
10.3%€7.55€6.13n/a2
Nov ’25€5.75
€6.63
+15.3%
10.3%€7.32€5.95n/a2
Oct ’25€6.15
€6.54
+6.3%
10.3%€7.22€5.86n/a2
Sep ’25€6.20
€6.54
+5.5%
10.3%€7.22€5.86n/a2
Aug ’25€6.40
€6.66
+4.1%
10.3%€7.35€5.97n/a2
Jul ’25€6.35
€6.66
+4.9%
10.3%€7.35€5.97n/a2
Jun ’25€6.40
€6.66
+4.1%
10.3%€7.35€5.97n/a2
May ’25€6.20
€6.34
+2.2%
3.7%€6.57€6.10n/a2
Apr ’25€6.25
€6.05
-3.2%
7.7%€6.52€5.59n/a2
Mar ’25€5.45
€5.92
+8.7%
7.7%€6.38€5.47n/a2
Feb ’25€5.50
€5.92
+7.7%
7.7%€6.38€5.47n/a2
Jan ’25€5.60
€5.92
+5.7%
7.7%€6.38€5.47n/a2
Apr ’24€6.50
€8.06
+23.9%
5.9%€8.53€7.58€6.252
Jan ’24€6.40
€7.36
+15.0%
3.2%€7.60€7.13€5.602
Dec ’23€7.00
€7.36
+5.2%
3.2%€7.60€7.13€5.502
Nov ’23€6.65
€8.63
+29.8%
13.4%€9.79€7.47€4.942

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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