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AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA Valuation

Is AR4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AR4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AR4 (€17.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€26.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AR4 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AR4?

Key metric: As AR4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AR4. This is calculated by dividing AR4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AR4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	9.1x
Earnings	€53.50m
Market Cap	€461.25m

AR4 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16x
PEG Ratio	0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AR4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AR4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16.8x
MLP MLP	10.8x	6.4%	€654.7m
O4B OVB Holding	15.1x	3.8%	€279.3m
DBAN Deutsche Beteiligungs	24.5x	54.1%	€421.5m
MUX Mutares SE KGaA	n/a	-45.5%	€460.1m
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA	9.1x	15.1%	€461.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AR4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the peer average (32.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AR4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
HXCK Ernst Russ	3.1x	-23.5%	US$201.17m
VG8 Varengold Bank	2x	n/a	US$25.76m
XE8 Black Sea Property	0.7x	n/a	US$7.75m

No more companies available in this PE range

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AR4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (17.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AR4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AR4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.1x
Fair PE Ratio	15.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AR4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AR4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Nov ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Oct ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Sep ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Aug ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Jul ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Jun ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
May ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Apr ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Mar ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Feb ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Jan ’25	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Dec ’24	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Nov ’24	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Oct ’24	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Sep ’24	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Aug ’24	n/a	€37.25 0%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Jul ’24	€17.85	€37.25 +108.7%	10.1%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	2
Jun ’24	€17.28	€37.70 +118.2%	8.3%	€41.00	€33.50	n/a	3
May ’24	€16.77	€39.53 +135.7%	10.5%	€45.00	€33.50	n/a	4
Apr ’24	€14.85	€39.53 +166.2%	10.5%	€45.00	€33.50	n/a	4
Mar ’24	€15.69	€40.65 +159.1%	6.8%	€45.00	€38.00	n/a	4
Feb ’24	€15.79	€40.65 +157.4%	6.8%	€45.00	€38.00	n/a	4
Jan ’24	€18.32	€40.65 +121.9%	6.8%	€45.00	€38.00	n/a	4
Dec ’23	€19.80	€40.65 +105.3%	6.8%	€45.00	€38.00	n/a	4
Nov ’23	€21.78	€43.78 +101.0%	9.9%	€51.30	€38.60	n/a	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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