Mastercard Incorporated

XTRA:M4I Stock Report

Market Cap: €459.1b

Mastercard Valuation

Is M4I undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of M4I when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: M4I (€499.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€457.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: M4I is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for M4I?

Key metric: As M4I is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for M4I. This is calculated by dividing M4I's market cap by their current earnings.
What is M4I's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio38.8x
EarningsUS$12.32b
Market CapUS$478.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does M4I's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for M4I vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.4x
V Visa
31.2x9.6%US$607.4b
DB1 Deutsche Börse
21.4x4.6%€39.5b
DBK Deutsche Bank
7.8x13.4%€30.2b
FI Fiserv
41.2x18.7%US$126.0b
M4I Mastercard
38.8x12.1%€478.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: M4I is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.8x) compared to the peer average (25.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does M4I's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Diversified Financial Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
M4I 38.8xIndustry Avg. 10.7xNo. of Companies13PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: M4I is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.8x) compared to the European Diversified Financial industry average (10.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is M4I's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

M4I PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio38.8x
Fair PE Ratio27.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: M4I is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst M4I forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€499.40
€535.06
+7.1%
6.8%€585.78€445.80n/a36
Nov ’25€470.55
€502.16
+6.7%
7.5%€558.29€420.80n/a37
Oct ’25€447.30
€468.77
+4.8%
5.6%€530.78€409.53n/a37
Sep ’25€435.20
€464.99
+6.8%
5.4%€512.32€405.36n/a36
Aug ’25€428.05
€479.47
+12.0%
6.0%€569.92€417.94n/a37
Jul ’25€407.30
€478.87
+17.6%
5.7%€573.86€420.83n/a37
Jun ’25€406.50
€474.40
+16.7%
5.5%€566.54€415.46n/a37
May ’25€426.40
€480.30
+12.6%
6.1%€575.21€385.34n/a37
Apr ’25€444.20
€469.94
+5.8%
5.3%€530.90€380.40n/a36
Mar ’25€438.00
€467.75
+6.8%
5.5%€531.36€380.73n/a37
Feb ’25€421.80
€452.97
+7.4%
7.1%€493.12€379.04n/a36
Jan ’25€385.80
€414.46
+7.4%
6.5%€472.16€372.28n/a35
Dec ’24€382.60
€409.76
+7.1%
5.1%€446.20€374.29n/a34
Nov ’24€357.80
€421.33
+17.8%
5.0%€457.33€383.63€470.5535
Oct ’24€377.80
€433.52
+14.7%
5.8%€500.86€384.40€447.3033
Sep ’24€384.80
€418.50
+8.8%
6.1%€487.74€358.66€435.2034
Aug ’24€359.80
€409.78
+13.9%
6.1%€481.07€353.76€428.0534
Jul ’24€357.40
€396.34
+10.9%
4.4%€436.11€356.40€407.3034
Jun ’24€342.20
€403.87
+18.0%
4.7%€443.73€362.63€406.5033
May ’24€344.00
€392.86
+14.2%
4.5%€430.23€354.57€426.4034
Apr ’24€333.95
€393.66
+17.9%
4.8%€435.42€358.85€444.2034
Mar ’24€329.35
€395.00
+19.9%
5.6%€439.95€335.56€438.0035
Feb ’24€337.80
€387.58
+14.7%
6.3%€434.19€326.56€421.8035
Jan ’24€323.15
€374.18
+15.8%
7.5%€445.28€292.45€385.8034
Dec ’23€339.75
€381.12
+12.2%
7.9%€455.67€299.27€382.6035
Nov ’23€332.80
€400.85
+20.4%
7.7%€477.85€313.84€357.8035

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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