Shake Shack Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 9SH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

9SH (€118.55) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (€113.11)

Is 9SH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9SH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9SH (€118.55) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€113.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9SH is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9SH?

Key metric: As 9SH is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 9SH. This is calculated by dividing 9SH's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 9SH's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	4.1x
Sales	US$1.21b
Market Cap	US$4.92b

9SH key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	42.7x
PEG Ratio	11.8x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 9SH's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 9SH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.2x
DHER Delivery Hero	1x	11.1%	€11.2b
TUI1 TUI	0.2x	3.8%	€3.9b
TIMA ZEAL Network	6.3x	12.9%	€944.3m
JFC Jollibee Foods	1.2x	10.9%	₱309.4b
9SH Shake Shack	4.1x	12.4%	€4.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 9SH is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (2.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 9SH's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Hospitality Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
MS1 Marley Spoon Group	0.08x	10.0%	US$14.42m
9UX Hostmore	0.0006x	n/a	US$138.43k

No more companies available in this PS range

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 9SH is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9SH's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9SH PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	4.1x
Fair PS Ratio	2.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 9SH is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9SH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	€118.55	€123.08 +3.8%	9.8%	€150.18	€95.74	n/a	22
Nov ’25	€112.25	€118.58 +5.6%	10.7%	€147.65	€92.28	n/a	22
Oct ’25	€91.84	€101.20 +10.2%	9.2%	€116.81	€85.36	n/a	22
Sep ’25	€91.16	€101.73 +11.6%	9.1%	€117.27	€85.70	n/a	22
Aug ’25	€95.94	€102.65 +7.0%	10.1%	€120.47	€83.40	n/a	22
Jul ’25	€83.36	€105.86 +27.0%	7.0%	€116.41	€88.47	n/a	21
Jun ’25	€86.56	€105.35 +21.7%	7.3%	€115.88	€88.07	n/a	20
May ’25	€98.86	€99.59 +0.7%	8.9%	€116.91	€84.18	n/a	21
Apr ’25	€96.14	€96.47 +0.3%	10.2%	€115.68	€81.44	n/a	20
Mar ’25	€98.14	€91.58 -6.7%	11.3%	€106.38	€60.13	n/a	20
Feb ’25	€69.78	€68.17 -2.3%	11.9%	€82.97	€55.31	n/a	19
Jan ’25	€68.08	€63.14 -7.2%	12.5%	€77.26	€50.90	n/a	19
Dec ’24	€55.34	€60.69 +9.7%	13.4%	€77.38	€50.98	n/a	18
Nov ’24	€52.80	€67.60 +28.0%	15.0%	€89.98	€53.04	€112.25	19
Oct ’24	€55.16	€72.94 +32.2%	9.2%	€89.11	€63.78	€91.84	17
Sep ’24	€64.82	€70.90 +9.4%	9.3%	€87.12	€62.36	€91.16	16
Aug ’24	€70.34	€65.82 -6.4%	11.9%	€81.64	€54.43	€95.94	16
Jul ’24	€71.14	€64.06 -9.9%	12.3%	€78.21	€54.29	€83.36	16
Jun ’24	€62.00	€63.08 +1.7%	9.7%	€76.21	€54.83	€86.56	15
May ’24	€48.91	€52.68 +7.7%	11.4%	€63.72	€43.69	€98.86	16
Apr ’24	€49.74	€53.65 +7.9%	11.3%	€64.53	€43.33	€96.14	15
Mar ’24	€52.44	€54.03 +3.0%	11.3%	€65.74	€44.14	€98.14	17
Feb ’24	€51.76	€49.57 -4.2%	10.0%	€58.08	€43.33	€69.78	17
Jan ’24	€38.80	€50.61 +30.5%	12.0%	€65.00	€42.39	€68.08	18
Dec ’23	€50.07	€53.24 +6.3%	11.5%	€67.70	€44.15	€55.34	19
Nov ’23	€55.93	€54.71 -2.2%	13.3%	€68.44	€43.64	€52.80	19

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.